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Cliff Wachtel commented Jul 8, 2012Unusual number of sources for volatility, especially in a week FOLLOWING the US jobs report week, which is usually the busiest for event risk. Q2 earnings helps, but also lots data from China and more than usual potential from EU
Coming week: 20 must watch potential market movers
- Submitted Jul 8, 2012|From thesensibleguidetoforex.com|3 comments
Plenty of Fuel for Volatility While the EU remains the dominant source of potential market moving events, it has plenty of competition. EU CRISIS RELATED EVENTS 1. Growing Skepticism About June 29th EU Summit Results Markets are beginning to ...
- Submitted Jul 7, 2012|From thesensibleguidetoforex.com|13 comments
So in retrospect, what did we get? Besides another week older and deeper in debt? Nothing much changed, except that each week closer to a major sovereign state or bank default that will eventually happen, without any mechanism in place to prevent ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jul 5, 2012
the author being a bit simplistic: assumes USD will behave purely as safe haven asset, up on bad news, down on good news. Not necessarily so, because Fed focused on jobs and spending as key metrics for when to raise rates. thus we have seen multiple ...
NFP Preview: Upside Surprise Could Hurt Dollar – 3 Scenarios
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jul 1, 2012
agreed, seems German exit at least as likely as any outcome. Expensive, but ultimately simpler and closure comes sooner. In the end Merkel or ANY German leader unlikely to risk their economy, banks, credit rating for sake of GIIPS, nor should they. ...
17 reasons to fade the eu summit euphoria rally
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jul 1, 2012
agreed - I'm just trying to show people what EU needs to do, what it still isn't doing, so that they don't get fooled by rallies based on false hopes
17 reasons to fade the eu summit euphoria rally
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jul 1, 2012
fascinated to see how quickly the Friday rally is undone,for reasons I cite in my earlier post of today: 17 reasons...
5 great big market movers to watch-carefully
- Submitted Jul 1, 2012|From thesensibleguidetoforex.com|1 comment
Even if you sold in May, 5 reasons not to go away. The sad, sad, truth, and the dirty lowdown As noted in our weekly review, PRIOR WEEK: 17 REASONS TO FADE THE EU SUMMIT EUPHORIA RALLY, the only real market mover was speculation about the EU summit. ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 30, 2012
Ok, after days of pouring over all the verbiage, here's how it breaks down and why we aren't buying Friday's rally. The EU summit was in many ways a microcosm/summation of all that's wrong with how the crisis has been handled and how we need to ...
17 reasons to fade the eu summit euphoria rally
- Submitted Jun 30, 2012|From thesensibleguidetoforex.com|11 comments
Last week, the only real market mover was speculation about the EU summit. Ok, US housing and some other data points might have provided a brief excuse for some movement, but that’s all. In last week’s post, COMING WEEK MARKET MOVERS: 6 EVENTS TO ...
- Submitted Jun 24, 2012|From thesensibleguidetoforex.com
Let’s cut to the chase. There are 6 key things to watch this week. The EU summit is likely the big one. Forget all the talk. Here are 8 things it must accomplish, or it’s a failure & risks a deeper, potentially fatal crisis for the EU and global ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 23, 2012
SUMMARY OF WHAT THE EU really either must do or die. The follow up weekly preview summarizes the 8 things the EU summit must accomplish or it will be a failure- these are key to keep in mind because EU and popular media will try, as always, to frame ...
Prior week market movers, analysis & lessons: Why eu really is doomed
- Submitted Jun 23, 2012|From thesensibleguidetoforex.com|1 comment
Below we review the prior week market movers and summarize why the EU really is doomed without some radical changes in policy, (none of which are likely to occur quickly enough, if at all) and some guidelines on how to prepare yourself Markets ...
- Submitted Jun 16, 2012|From thesensibleguidetoforex.com|5 comments
Lessons from the prior week’s market movers While concerns about Greece, Italy, and China loomed in the background, the two primary market movers last week were: Lack of Confidence In The Spain Bank Bailout Plan Sends Markets Plunging Monday Hope ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 12, 2012
Glad to see someone at NYT read my article posted here on Sunday, ff readers got the truth early while media shills were hailing it
Why the Bailout in Spain Won’t Work
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 11, 2012
follow up to above: certainly, EU leaders don't seem to be taking long term view - if so would decide: either unified banking system or breakup
Coming week market movers: Spain and 3 other sources of panic
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 11, 2012
very tough to predict outcomes based on political decisions - leaders themselves don't seem to know what they'll do, reacting to events
Coming week market movers: Spain and 3 other sources of panic
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 11, 2012
right, we're in a negative feedback loop. A number of ways to get out of it, ideally politicians choose productive policies like tax credits for hiring/investment (either pay $ for tax or to hire/invest in equipment) or they just print for ...
Coming week market movers: Spain and 3 other sources of panic
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 11, 2012
If past years are any guide, when they peer over the abyss they do whatever it takes to defer the plunge (at least leave it for the next one in office). Debts too big to be repaid by some, and besides, printing money less painful (at first) than ...
Coming week market movers: Spain and 3 other sources of panic
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 10, 2012
Reviewing all likely outcomes, we see a lot of money printing ahead. while depressed economic conditions could keep a lid on inflation for a while (though 1970s style 'stagflation' a distinct possibility given extent of printing - ie incomes ...
Coming week market movers: Spain and 3 other sources of panic