The moves in currencies and yields are extremely unsettling. Also the fact that the fed seems to not understand leads and lags. This blind Volckeresque tightening is extremely destructive and creating a huge global dollar shortage. The irony is that ...

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Nice trade

EURUSD

Maybe here? If not, looks like the market is eyeballing .64 at the lowest maybe .25 or so…

AUD/USD

Nice

The Swamp

GDP spells recession and we start a wild tard rally unlike anything we’ve seen in our lifetimes. Oceans of liquidity out there still and the bond markets are all leading the way.

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I remember Trichet hit us with that hammer last time the euro was up at 1.49xx Think we dropped roughly 400 that day. Never been back since...

The Swamp

Yep... been on the tracks enough when the freight train comes through to know better... could see 200-250+ at any point... Dxy is screaming and yields are plummeting.... more flight to the dollar

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Bund is screaming higher. Either need ZN to move faster or the bund to rollover. But no question this is purely bond driven. Look at equities... just a whole lot of nothing

The Swamp

Its a historic inflection point for a trade either way. You have people who are supply/demand traders(10Y hit supply) and you have people who are trend traders(trend is up). You cant have it both ways, hence why we have a market. 2.75-2.85 has been ...

USD/JPY Discussion

I thought he had cancer?

The Swamp

That about sums it up

The Swamp

That's true, any sort of negotiated settlement and spooz is up 10% overnight. Lots are forgetting about that.

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Thats amazing dude... well done

The Swamp

Yeah man, its just the leads and lags that are so difficult when dealing with this kind of leverage. Powell wants to be Volcker, but he is inheriting a world with $200T more in debt than Volcker did. its like being a crane operator, the larger the ...

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Gotta think that premium sellers will have the upper hand until the Fed and GDP print at EOM. What's really gonna gap us up, or down? Biden was right about the CPI print, oil was $20 higher, and a ton of other commodities were much higher too. Plus ...

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Definitely talking my book here, but I don't know if we need another big 240pt speed candle to break the intermediate downtrend. Just a sideways to upward grind to build a base and get people to keep eating stops trying to short would be more ...

The Swamp

TITCR Waiting for the momentum bar is the play here. Plenty of room both ways after we get away from parity. It's worth missing some initial pips to get a strong conviction position.

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Man it felt weird to hit the buy button after so long on Fibre. But that's the mantra "If it feels wrong it's gotta be right"

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Yeah it made a Darth Maul. Good setup, looking to trade the break with stops on the other side of the mid

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Every available metric shows we are already in a recession. The bond market, as usual, is key, and it tightened before the fed did anything and its already peaked in rates, also before the fed. Always remember the fed is a slave to data, and the ...

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