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- AnniLi commented Aug 31, 2015
World economy has plenty of spare capacity. Currencies at risk are USD and GBP which have priced in interest rate rises which won't happen. In the meantime Aus, Nz, Can, completing their adjustments to much lower export commority prices. Delicate ...
Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
- AnniLi commented Aug 30, 2015
The global output gap remains very substantial and explains the absence of fresh inflationary pressure anywhere. China, USA and Europe now comprise 65% of the world economy so we need to look to those decisionmakers. What UK does on its own is only ...
Carney: Inflation in a globalised world
- AnniLi commented Aug 13, 2015
This is a heart skipping a beat compared to 2008.
The junk bond market 'is having a coronary': David Rosenberg
- AnniLi commented Aug 11, 2015
Just to add that this productivity measure is for labor alone. Capital productivity is a separate issue. Existing and new capital productivity has probably increased (pressure from GFC and world trade) meaning the same level of production with fewer ...
Productivity dry spell looks worse in latest report
- AnniLi commented Aug 11, 2015
Two big issues have not been identified in this comment. First, we need to emphasise that UNit Labor Costs (also released today) rose by an annualised 0.3% in Q2. This is regarded as leading inflation pressure so today's release is dovish. ULC = ECI ...
Productivity dry spell looks worse in latest report
- AnniLi commented Aug 6, 2015
Key drivers: Russian sanctions; US and Canada production subsidies to their dairy farmers; Lack of drought First unpredictable, second unforgivable, third unprogrammable. Best bet for early turnaround? Drought in the right places.
NZDUSD Traders Crying Over Spilt Milk, Could .6400 Be Next?
- AnniLi commented Jul 29, 2015
"Normal" appears as the fifth last word of the Statement and that paragraph says we are a long, long way from normal. So if you thought normal was very close, its a dovish and cautious statement. If you thought normal (in the Fed's eyes) was far ...
Fed Hike Moving into Focus
- AnniLi commented Jul 29, 2015
"Normal" appears as the fifth last word of the Statement and that paragraph says we are a long, long way from normal. So if you thought normal was very close, its a dovish and cautious statement. If you thought normal (in the Fed's eyes) was far ...
FOMC Statement
- AnniLi commented Jul 28, 2015
Fantastic analysis. If its falling, sell. Check out any longer term chart. Unless you see global recession imminent (not impossible) the rest of the market doesn't and is waiting to pounce. It goes down because sentiment is currently very bad and ...
Australian Dollar's 20% Drop Isn't Over Yet
- AnniLi commented Jul 28, 2015
Forgot to mention the fixed exchange rate and many other government controls. So why does the FED need to raise interest rates? Is it fighting inflation or testing whether the money markets actually work?
Why Does the U.S. Have Such a Large Trade Deficit with China?
- AnniLi commented Jul 20, 2015
This 'report' is elementary and does not really address the issues well. Japan has had a ZIRP for over 10 years (zero interest rate policy) which means it pre-dated the GFC. Countries which adopted QE post GFC did so because their money markest were ...
Will the Bank of Canada have to start looking at QE soon?
- AnniLi commented Jul 16, 2015
Modest recovery and zero inflation. Time warp.
BOJ Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments: Jul 2015
- AnniLi commented Jul 16, 2015
You mean they actually used logic? Well I never.
Nine People Who Saw the Greek Crisis Coming Years Before Everyone Else Did
- AnniLi commented Jul 15, 2015
Debt is never a problem until the borrower can't repay. Then there's a period for tears. Then everyone moves on. Many, many more important and intricate issues than Greece deserve attention.
IMF stuns Europe with call for massive Greek debt relief
- AnniLi commented Jul 15, 2015
Time to go long. NZD/CHF is within 5% of all time low post GFC 2009 end of the world fears scenario. If that's how you are valuing NZ how are you valuing Greece? Or just stay for the 5%, I guess.
GlobalDairyTrade auction prices suffer biggest fall of 2015
- AnniLi commented Jul 15, 2015
The trend is down and so the traders knew this news was coming.
NZDUSD Traders Crying Over Spilt Milk, Could .6400 Be Next?
- AnniLi commented Jul 14, 2015
This ship has no skipper
Tsipras: I don't believe in new Greek reforms
- AnniLi commented Jul 14, 2015
Agreed. Such views are surprisingly silent on what has been happening in the world other than the post GFC monetary policy tasks. The powerful combination of GFC and continued strong emergence of BRICs sheds more light on the long period of low ...
Miles: Don’t just do something, stand there”… (and think)
- AnniLi commented Jul 13, 2015
Sounds like people talking their positions. Shake-out started 4 years ago and slowdown hardly news. Check longer term charts and very strong rebounds in this pair as global growth risks diminish. Good luck to all but go beyond candle patterns and ...
NAB Monthly Business Survey – June 2015