Congress has kicked the can down the road for another 2 years. US inflation could be another trigger but nothing imminent and Fed poised to tighten. I agree its awful but can't see a neartime trigger.

USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD: Outlooks For The Coming Week - Morgan Stanley

We also get another NFP read before the meeting. Judging by recent patterns it could easily be 150k and unemployment rate back to 5.1%. The Fed just can't calibrate that finely and inflation indicators still to come. Caution required for USD bulls.

Jobs Report Gives a Green Light to Fed

Even taking the number at face value there is too much hype. That is, these data are not enough. We get another NFP read before the Fed meeting, so we will get the usual "This is the one" next month. So rather than 'no brainer' bullish for USD I ...

Economists React to the October Jobs Report: ‘December Move Almost a Certainty’

Article does not cover the inefficiencies in US money markets revealed by the period before the crisis. Non-interest rate policies were required not because policy interest rates were close to zero but because, like other markets,a money market ...

Brainard: Unconventional Monetary Policy and Cross-Border Spillovers

Just don't be surprised if they raise rates or if they don't raise rates. That at least is clear. Big works like 'if' and 'might' are treasures of the English langauge. The number one obstacle is some convincing evidence that the CPI target is under ...

Fed's Yellen sees possible December rate rise, gradual hiking path

Its averaged only 51-52 or so for the last 4 or more years so 49.8 nothing to get worked up about. Its also marginally better than previous month (yes, a smaller negative change). Jumping at shadows comes to mind; might miss bigger picture of ...

China official October factory PMI unchanged at 49.8, shrinks for third month

Thanks, verv, for the comment. The money market is just the market for short term lending/borrowing. My point is that QE is the state providing supply to the market rather than the private sector. All of the new regulations are really untested in ...

Conceptual pitfalls and monetary policy errors

Are there differing views on the economy? What are they?

Canada Goes to the Polls on Monday October 19

And downside for USD?

Silver and Gold set up for a bullish rally

Thanks, Marc. Does the election matter? By which I mean is there any risk that new economic policies will be put into place, and which? AUD and NZD are also recovering beginning to suggest that worst sentiment for commodities is behind us and global ...

Thoughts on the Canadian Dollar

Bertie Wooster

Children of the Yuan Percent: Everyone Hates China’s Rich Kids

The article says no significant deterioration i.e some deterioration? The same source reports negative manufacturing surveys in most regions of US. NFP Jobs data and ADP data support some easing off in jobs growth overall (check out longer time ...

Read Beyond Massive Job-Cuts Headlines: Labor Market Is Fine

Not a very complete picture. No reference to the US inspired Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath. Why was interest rate signalling abandoned in the first place? No reference to open-ness of world trade now and how this affects domestic ...

The Chinese Economy and Fed Policy

See Thomas Jordan's (SNB) technical article for evidence of the increasing power of global conditions on domestic inflation. The US is not exempt. Indeed, the absence of reforms in the US economy makes it more likely to follow global conditions than ...

The More Yellen Talks Up Inflation, the Less Traders Believe Her

In a world of much more open trade, inflation can only be a global phenomenon - that is, global aggregate demand running faster than global aggregate supply until a resource limit is reached (e.g. labour, oil, good politicians). Excess global demand ...

Yellen's Flip-Flop Isn't Guidance

He's out of touch

Hank Paulson: China economy has 'run out of steam'

Labour is only one of the inputs to production and at least I was taught 40 years ago that hours worked is a better measure than number of workers, so this article starts off badly. Sources of productivity growth abound: new resource endowments, new ...

Why the 'productivity puzzle' matters

Subjective odds in this case are beyond confidence levels. What you have is uncertainty. Strategies are minimax, maximin, equal probability, and least regrets. All equally unreliable or reliable. That's why it comes down to flipping a coin.

Analyzing the Odds of a Fed Rate Increase

Really good analysis and charts and supports the view that both world and US inflationary pressures do not justify a tightening of monetary policy in the USA or anywhere else that matters. BUT, it has been clear since Yellen arrived that the FED is ...

Conceptual pitfalls and monetary policy errors

Hmmm. Let's think of the differences in everyone's views from 18 months ago. The ravishes of the sanctions on Russia on the dairy prodcuts markets, the collapse of oil prices which we were all predicting, the smooth transition of managing the Greek ...

RBNZ seen cutting official cash rate this month and next