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- AnniLi commented Dec 16, 2015
No mention of fiscal policy nor market reforms. As long as the US tries to fly with one wing then that wing will be stressed. USD strength is really greater weakness everywhere else. The degree of divergence is much overstated so 2016 could be as ...
On US Interest Rates
- AnniLi commented Dec 13, 2015
The labor market readings are mixed, especially those relating to inflationary pressure. The unemployment rate was a whisker away from 5.1% (yes rounding, but that's the point). So much has been built into this decision its as if the market is ...
Hilsenrath Just Reset Market Expectations: "Fed Is Worried Rates Will End Up Right Back At...
- AnniLi commented Dec 13, 2015
The labor market readings are mixed, especially those relating to inflationary pressure. The unemployment rate was a whisker away from 5.1% (yes rounding, but that's the point). So much has been built into this decision its as if the market is ...
After ECB's Hawkish Cut, Is the Fed about to Deliver a Dovish Hike?
- AnniLi commented Dec 11, 2015
Right on. Fed is out of sync. Whole world is worried about lack of growth and not an imminent inflation threat. Expect a dovish language even if a hike goes ahead. If hike delayed US dollar is a big sell. By the way the unemployment rate has been ...
Crude Crashes 15% Post-OPEC To $35 Handle
- AnniLi commented Dec 11, 2015
Fed is out of sync. Whole world is worried about lack of growth and not an imminent inflation threat. Expect a dovish language even if a hike goes ahead. If hike delayed US dollar is a big sell. By the way the unemployment rate has been rising not ...
Oil and the looming FOMC still driving sentiment
- AnniLi commented Dec 11, 2015
Fed is out of sync. Whole world is worried about lack of growth and not an imminent inflation threat. Expect a dovish language even if a hike goes ahead. If hike delayed US dollar is a big sell. By the way the unemployment rate has been rising not ...
Buy or Sell: EUR/USD Prepares for FOMC Meeting
- AnniLi commented Dec 8, 2015
Deflation and recession internally. But wild world helping safe haven demand. Ultimate trend is clear but would probably suffer solid profit hits along the way. SNB could end the year as it began it - by lying.
Swiss to Hold Rate Fire as ECB Stimulus Impact Falls Short
- AnniLi commented Dec 5, 2015
The official unemploment rate for November was 5.046%! And the increase in s.a. employment was 244,000.
November jobs report likely to give Fed go-ahead to raise interest rates
- AnniLi commented Dec 2, 2015
Looking at the range of likely numbers does not provide a great deal of confidence that the Fed will raise or not raise. The unemployment rate could easily move back above 5% (be warned). Even if we get 200k (not yet certain even with ADP) then an ...
November jobs report likely to give Fed go-ahead to raise interest rates
- AnniLi commented Nov 30, 2015
The economy has been adjusting to weaker commodity prices since 2013 and so taking a start date of September 2015 is not very enlightening. Also the non-tradables economy is quite strong and is not even mentioned in the piece. RBA will provide wider ...
ANZ: Here's why the RBA may need to change its tune on the Australian dollar
- AnniLi commented Nov 27, 2015
Australian economy is adjusting to distorted export prices and associated capex - nothing new. The structure is dynamic (decision makers have been proactive). Jobs and vacancies are in sync so not sure what mirage you are talking about. USD looks ...
Is the Worse of the Aussie Behind?
- AnniLi commented Nov 26, 2015
Australia is producing something rare in the world - jobs. After the Fed (again) we should see interest return to the buy side for the sort of signals you are looking for. Main issue is whether to move now, or wait.
AUDUSD – Evening Star Casts Doubt on Breakout
- AnniLi commented Nov 20, 2015
A hard landing in the USA tends to shake the world. What's the point about China? The GFC had its deep roots in USA. Am I missing something? China seems more organised and proactive than US government. A hard landing in Europe would also be bad. ...
A Hard Landing in China Could 'Shake the World'
- AnniLi commented Nov 17, 2015
This is a very thin story with no framework and no attempt to hinge global economics to global politics. How can you with no framework? Let's just make 5 points. First, the global population is 7.4 billion people and last Saturday, tragedy though it ...
What The Paris Attacks Mean For Commodities Prices
- AnniLi commented Nov 15, 2015
Fed said "we'll watch the data." All of the data point to global deflation risks and minimal risk to US inflation rate (export prices, import prices, USA consumer sentiment weakening, jobs growth anaemic, GDP anaemic, doubts where full employment ...
Any doubts over about December Fed hike may be swept away
- AnniLi commented Nov 11, 2015
Guess no-one read this, sorry.
Australian consumer confidence soars again
- AnniLi commented Nov 10, 2015
Jobs number due tomorrow very likely to surprise on the high side. Market consensus suggests Oct/Oct of barely 1% with jobs ads now trending 10% pa and consumer confidence suggesting job finding easier. Have a look at numbers and see that +40k jobs ...
Australian consumer confidence soars again
- AnniLi commented Nov 8, 2015
Caution. One more jobs number before Fed's call. That won't be easy money, fellas. Buying USD is buying Trump. How good does that feel? Averaging jobs numbers shows no positive trend. No inflation either. Good luck.
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