China is working through many transitions to become something more akin to a country which could aspire to a floating currency i.e. a 'free' market. But a 'free' market does not guarantee fairness, and we have many 'advanced' economies who intervene ...

Renminbi Series Part 2: Is China’s Currency Fairly Valued?

Abstained on more QE - 2012. His analysis seems flawed.

Fed's Lacker is reasonably confident that inflation will rise to 2%

She said she could see no convincing evidence of wage pressure, that's the key.

When Doves Cry: Imprudently Cautious

"No convincing evidence of wage inflation" is a comment to treasure. This pause gives the markets time to zoom out again and consider what 'normalisation' is supposed to mean now. And how long is it likely to take to reach normality? We are 7 to 8 ...

Five things we learned from the Federal Reserve

At the global level there is no doubt that excess supply of goods and services is causing deflation, not inflation. And in an open world economy even the US is feeling that deflationary draught. It seems unlikely that the US should be the only ...

Stanley Fischer and Lael Brainard Are Battling for Yellen’s Soul

Best AUD play versus CHF for rest of the year. Expect switch back to Risk-On (CHF safe haven weakens), as year progresses, more global growth momentum, more monetary easing (weak inflation) but RBA still has positive rates. If world gets more ...

AUD above 200 DMA

Head on shoulder work best for me.

Islamic State 'earning millions by playing the stock market'

Avoid abuse. Just shows us the ideas and the profits.

This $1.4 Trillion Investor Says Wild Markets Are Here to Stay

He is a level headed intelligent guy. He gives 3 factors: no global growth momentum, central banks emasculated, long term investors sidelined. So it has to get worse before better. End of story.

El-Erian: 'Perfect storm' for volatility not over

The President has very limited powers in relation to the domestic economy. Bill Clinton was lucky; the Bushes were unlucky; Obama was unlucky. US Congress and US Federal Reserve are much more powerful but the former no longer faces up to important ...

$12.3 trillion of QE has added up to...this?

The GFC coincided with the opening up of vast markets to the world economy. Each carried deflationary threats but occurring simultaneously caused these threats to hang around for years, maybe 5 to 10 more years. Econ 101 provides many, many tools ...

$12.3 trillion of QE has added up to...this?

The phrase added something to the debate but this piece pushes its importance too far. Since 2008 we have seen many important changes along the lines MEL suggests and in many 'large' economies. The financial crisis fall-out and tighter fiscal/ ...

The End of the New Normal?

Clever and amusing

Fed's Williams says sees 'smidgen' slower rate hikes

More discussion is needed on what "normalisation" means. My interpretation is quite different to 3.5%FFR. What about you?? "Normal" for most of my career (I'm 69) meant that the money markets were efficient and so the central bank could influence ...

'Monetary Policy is Not About Interest Rates'

Let's agree: there is no formula for 100% success. That out of the way, we agree that both fundamentals and charting technicals are important; and that their degree of importance varies. That's 3 sources of inputs to grasp. Single source strategies ...

Reversal trading 2.0 – The 4 step process to the perfect reversal trade

I like this even though it does not directly question the concept of full employment and where that might be exactly for both countries. The arguments for the UK suggest that the NAIRU may be less that she thought it was. And this would explain the ...

BoE Forbes: UK to Hike Rates When Wages Pick Up

I like this even though it does not directly question the concept of full employment and where that might be exactly for both countries. The arguments for the UK suggest that the NAIRU may be less that she thought it was. And this would explain the ...

Forbes: A tale of two labour markets: the UK and US

Fed U-turn will not help USD.

Strong dollar could send oil to $20

NZD exchange rates also played a buffering role when world prices were rising strongly. So when you step back the dual effects have muted the effects of external influences on the domestic economy. All in all the NZ economy remains in the recovery ...

A Year to Forget

The unemployment rate actually rose by nearly 0.5% in November but not enough to print 5.1% rather than (unchangd) 5.0%. The evidence for USD higher rates is thin ice indeed and it would not take much of same sort of numbers across the board making ...

Three Rate Differentials to Note