If this does not start moving, I'll start padding trades again to make certain that I get a loss for the trade, so I can try to design another recovery attempt. Remember, this week is all about recovery from failure. So, far, that's not worked out ...

The Confession & The Secret

I'm going to go ahead and use the V-Trigger Swap line at 3837. So, if my Short gets swapped, it will have a larger loss than normal. The initial trade off the Swap line, typically has a larger loss if it gets swapped, because I have to enter that ...

The Confession & The Secret

I just got an idea. I'm wondering if I can improve the swapping and minimize initial loss, by working in data from the dollar index into the swap decision. Hmmmm. I think I'll follow-up on that idea.

The Confession & The Secret

If you have noted the trade journal, you will see that a V-Trigger came at 3837. My entry was slight late due to typing at 3825 Short. Please see pic in Journal. Initial trade now underway. Initiating Swap Sequence.

The Confession & The Secret

V-Trigger: 10/26/2011 at Close of 1515 hrs GMT. Initial trade is Short from 3825. (I was a little off on entry due to typing this post) image

A Different Kind of Journal (EURUSD)

The Weekly high is 3974 and the Weekly low is 3798. That's 176 pips deep. The Weekly range is now 361 to 391 pips deep. If you get a late week break near 3974, then a flood of buyer will come out of the woodwork to push price to near the Weekly ...

The Confession & The Secret

As a side note - it may be time for a United States of Europe. Just maybe.

The Confession & The Secret

In total, I've got 180+ pips to go to work on. In hindsight, by missing today's V-Trigger (see pic above), I missed out on a 127 pip trade thus far (minus one negative Swap for -9 pips). It was 73 pips just a few minutes ago as it just put on an ...

The Confession & The Secret

Trade went terminal and was closed with no trailing Swap at -187.8 pips. Here are the results of the first Swap Cycle: image

A Different Kind of Journal (EURUSD)

Recovery analysis follow-up. Recall that the Weekly range is non-directional, so the remaining 75% of fuel in its tank that I wrote about yesterday, can expand either the Weekly high, or the Weekly low (as stated previously). The recovery requires ...

The Confession & The Secret

Clearly, the key to this is wrapped up in the V-Trigger logic. When the market is this sensitive to politicians, anything can happen at any time. In times like this, Directional trading becomes very hard and Swap style trading becomes easier. ...

The Confession & The Secret

About 40 pips or so to go before the trade goes terminal and becomes unrecoverable, given the EU walk-out that just occurred. Leave it up to the politicians, and everything will eventually fall apart one way or another. At the very same time, there ...

The Confession & The Secret

It was actually 3925, but it is very hard to be that precise with an online trading account over the internet - so I get as close as I can at the start. Of course, the line shifts as the Swap Sequence begins, but the line is draw based on a Double ...

The Confession & The Secret

If you've been paying attention to the other thread, then you know that this trade has now been shifted into recovery mode, using the Weekly data. Please see url at post number 74. As you can see, I had to force many Swaps to produce a guaranteed ...

A Different Kind of Journal (EURUSD)

Recovery analysis follow-up. Germany has decided to participate and do its part in facilitating the U.K.'s version of a quasi QE3. So, the EURUSD got a pop on that news. Nothing else has changed the recovery analysis, other than the fact that it is ...

The Confession & The Secret

guandi, I'm using the standard MT4 bar position identifier. So, [1] is always the bar after the current bar, which is always [0]. My live production platform is BARX. Because I can more easily get custom indicator work done in MT4, you see pics from ...

The Confession & The Secret

Ok, so - following up on the heels of the recovery analysis, I've decided to go ahead and switch over to a Weekly Swap Sequence. Since price remains above the Weekly open, I'll continue to hold using the remaining 82 pips of reserve fuel before a ...

The Confession & The Secret

Maybe the recovery analysis will help.

The Confession & The Secret

So, lets do some Recovery Analysis. I now have a failed trading session. I'm roughly -118 pips down on the day. The fuel reserves on the Day have been depleted to within 25% of empty. The Daily range is around 140 to 145 pips and the remaining time ...

The Confession & The Secret

I'm saying that you can trade a line on a charts - that's about it. I'm not really trying to elaborate in every detail of how I do it. People do it differently, but I've stated in this thread the reasons why I think it is important to maintain at ...

The Confession & The Secret