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- 4xmaker replied Jan 3, 2014
i waited the whole 7 minutes....... What really is your theory? We've found bottom just a little bit above 1.3600 ?
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
But doesn't it put the bond buyer at risk of losing money on the face value of the bond if the yield spikes up? I understand what you are saying, but I don't see how the risk on/off is directly related to the yields than to the currency and the loop ...
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
what now? nothing but good news for USD? 1.35? 1.34?
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
TOTALLY a PRO TRADER mentality.
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
I see risk off/on, as USD and JPY moving in tandem. CHF used to be the group as well until the EUR peg. Is that correct?
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
who dares to go LONG? and where would you be looking to TP?
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
U/J can also mean RISK OFF! LOL, people had seemed to forgotten that correlation....I wonder if it still holds.
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
I believe U/J is notoriously linked to US jobs data and such. More us workers = more Japanese goods demand = Stronger yen... I think I'm right, but please correct me if I'm wrong so we can all learn!
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
You are right, I remember building positions here. I am starting to hate the 1.36 zone. It is such an unnecessary magnet for volatility. I wish I had a time machine that I can just fast forward immediately to know if my trades are winning to ...
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
I dont' like the PA, looks like you gotta wait for major NY push to make this lower....maybe even tomorrow, gang. I guess I can close now, and put a limit sell at the break below 1.36 ish.... or just keep it open.... how likely this will be a double ...
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
Its called QE, and operation Twist. They distort market valuation, and cause FX to just go stupid against conventional wisdom. They try to play god and manipulate market borrowing cost to stimulate growth in an economy that has overleveraged.
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
It is a paid service called MNI, it is essential news source to trade fx in my very honest opinion. Hell, if I had a pick between a Bloomberg terminal or MNI, I would pick MNI every time.
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
It says LARGE, so I assume it is significant for market players to take note. Nothing to defend because it isn't Very LARGE. I say the chances are 50/50 to get there by that time. The exact number I dont have, and I dont think anyone does.
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
It was from me: OPTIONS: Option expiries for today's NY cut 1000ET. Large(L), Very Large(VL), * Euro-dollar; $1.3700(L) * Dollar-yen; Y104.00 * Aussie; $0.8800, $0.8950, $0.9000 * Kiwi; $0.8180, $0.8170, $0.8165(VL), $0.8160
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
WTF are you talking about?
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
Will need a super crappy ISM I think.... I highly doubt you will get to 1.37... I think 1.35 zone has a higher chance than 1.37
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
Yea? an unprecedented Tapering of the largest QE the world has ever seen in a developed nation, and I'm very afraid of using conventional logic to predict the soon to be PA..... I think it is gonna be freaky crazy. the artificially compressed low ...
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
My question is why the USD suddenly became so strong all of a sudden? I started using international fisher effect to see if the currency pair will appreciate or depreciate based on the changes of the gov bond yields. So far, it has been pretty ...
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
Given the PA, I am going to boldly say that we will flush through the anticipated 1.3620 zone in a super fast candle down that penetrates through 1.3600 very quickly with a light bounce.
- 4xmaker replied Jan 2, 2014
I would not close the books before Christmas if I was a big corporation. I would wait till last minute to start doing currency translations and conversions. For speculators, it sucked BIG TIME, I mean I was personally very surprised by the strength ...