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- Ltc.Data replied Sep 11, 2013
The edge is a measure of outperforming a break-even system by predicting a market. Both, your counter-example and the paper you posted in this thread is pseudo-math. I am not going to argue with all the nonsense you posted in the previous message ...
Expectancy Management
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 11, 2013
There is no catch. It is valid for any E. You verification method is faulty. Hint, there is no need for a MC-sim but you need to understand the Kelly Criterion which serves as a guide for people who like money to maximize their Expected (bankroll) ...
Expectancy Management
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 11, 2013
It's just a joke playfully masquerading as a wisdom. No math involved. Here is another one of the same sort: better to be rich and healthy than poor and sick. Next time say what you mean, it helps in conversations, I am not a mind reader. ...
Expectancy Management
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 10, 2013
You are about to get enlightened: https://www.google.com/search?q="expected+growth"+kelly
Expectancy Management
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 10, 2013
I repeat, because it is incoherent, particularly in the part where you mentioned "+90%". It is not 50% part which is wrong. LOL, do you really believe that this is serious? I have another one for you, "to have more and bigger winners than losers". ...
Expectancy Management
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 10, 2013
Well, you're welcome. I simply answered the questions you had about the phenomena you described: You are looking for the answers in the wrong places. First, you need to distinguish between Expected Value and Expected Growth. You think you should try ...
Expectancy Management
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 10, 2013
This is wrong on too many levels but it is impossible to argue with as this is incoherent as well.
Expectancy Management
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 10, 2013
The answer is over staking, or risking too much. To grow his bankroll the trader needs an edge and proper stake sizing. Kelly Criterion deals with the latter. If a trader has an edge and uses lesser than optimal stakes (uses Kelly multiplier which ...
Expectancy Management
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 10, 2013
No, you are not. So, you like the explanations why the coin turns up heads vs. tails. Fine, but the mathematician do not care about this. They work with probabilities, something that you do not understand, as the example below clearly shows. This is ...
Do you think statistics work in trading?
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 6, 2013
Just don't compare gambling and black jack, ok?
Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 6, 2013
The assumption: 50% win rate The setup: risk/reward=1/4 The optimal Kelly stake is 33.33% The analyses: since the stake (50%) is larger than optimal stake the risk of ruin (on the long run, of course) is 100% The conclusions: 1) this is truly a bad ...
Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 5, 2013
If you want to draw a parallel with the story then that would have been a broker that charges 6+% in commissions. Contrary to your assumption, it is not easy to trade at break even with such a broker.
Could this be what HFT's are doing to the market?
- Ltc.Data replied Sep 1, 2013
Translation, they are not confident that with such a huge edge they will become multimillionaires very soon. Or, perhaps, those people have some (may be, intuitive) understanding of Kelly Criterion combined with a grasp of a reality. The guy who ...
Rags to Riches in 10 or 20 Trades - Simplicity at its finest
- Ltc.Data replied Aug 12, 2013
Here it is below. __________________________________________ Pattern number 1 - Rebound from the zero line (ZLR) ------------------------------------------------ ----------- Pattern "Bouncing off the zero line" (ZLR) "is a CCI strong rebound from ...
Please translate indicator text
- Ltc.Data replied Aug 7, 2013
Can anybody be so kind and help turning this pseudo-code into MQL4 code? __________________start pseudo-code__________________ select a currency pair select trade direction: long, short, both specify the constants: x //move in pips in one direction ...
I will code your EAs and Indicators for no charge
- Ltc.Data replied Aug 7, 2013
Don't log off, just close the RD window, this will keep the session always running which includes MT4 and EA. yes, there is a "remote" (pun intended) possibility that this session will "jam" due to an application or a process crash resulting in your ...
Running MT4 24/7 on VPS problem
- Ltc.Data replied Aug 6, 2013
I am looking for something seemingly simple but just keep failing finding it.
I will code your EAs and Indicators for no chargeI do think that what I am looking for already exists and hoping for an advise from a seasoned EA expert. If not, I am going to look for a programmer to create ...
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