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- Jimbaloo replied Jan 17, 2015
It's stunning to me that so many (big) market participants accepted SNB commitment talk at face value. The entire world was short Swiss francs. Risk in EURCHF was skewed to the downside. I've been saying this repeatedly. Also, those who bothered ...
- Jimbaloo replied Nov 13, 2014
Reuters Eikon or Bloomberg Professional.
- Jimbaloo replied Sep 5, 2014
Surprisingly many seem to accept what the SNB says in media at face value. It has little to gain by signaling changes to the FX floor in advance. In today's market, where equity multiples already seem stretched and bond yields far up the curve are ...
- Jimbaloo replied Aug 28, 2014
It's going to be terrific fun when SNB lowers the floor. Retail will be carried out on a stretcher.
- Jimbaloo replied Aug 27, 2014
Selling winners to average down on losers? Take a look at any core EZ yield chart. Should be obvious why there's low demand for EUR. Switzerland imports MP from the Eurozone. A depreciating EUR TWI and falling yields results in a more ...
- Jimbaloo replied Aug 17, 2014
Output in Switzerland is growing close to trend (unlike every country in Euroland) and there's very little labor slack. This is reflected in SNB's measure of core inflation. The persistent decline in EZ yields across the curve increases the ...
- Jimbaloo replied Jul 29, 2014
Difficult to argue for EUR outperformance going forward but knowing that the whole street has turned bearish gives me the creeps. Wouldn't surprise me if we get the full roundtrip tomorrow. I have no clue about the route though.
- Jimbaloo replied Jul 28, 2014
There's always a chance. COT positioning in 6E is already stretched by recent standards. The downward momentum could also continue. In my experience, EUR doesn't hang about when it has finally decided on a direction. 1.34-zone should still provide ...
- Jimbaloo replied Jul 23, 2014
Hi Aws, Is it still possible to be put on this mailing list? Sent you a PM on 14. July but to my disappointment I haven't received anything yet. Cheers.
- Jimbaloo replied Jul 17, 2014
This might come as a surprise to some: the euro is actually tied to an underlying economy. With a random or equal weighting it becomes very difficult to accurately assess whether the index is over/undervalued. Of course, it's possible to ...
- Jimbaloo replied Jul 17, 2014
EURUSD has been rangebound between 1.35-37 for approx. 2 months. Attempting to time WHEN a break-out will occur is just folly. The EUR index you mentioned should be trade weighted, like this one: url
- Jimbaloo replied May 17, 2014
Waiting for a retrace is a bad idea because you often end up with those which have the least momentum. Markets have changed since the 80's. Having access to good flow information will certainly make it easier. Speaking on my own behalf, break-out's ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 29, 2014
Euro’s resilience is caused by rising short-end real yields and net FDI and portfolio investment inflows. To fight these currents the ECB would have to engage in massive unsterilized foreign bond buying. Also important. The ECB has no maximum ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 27, 2014
Thank you for that in-depth global macroeconomic analysis. So following this blatant gold manipulation that will cause gold to reach $1000, you're saying it should be bought and held thru GFC II? May I remind you, risky assets, like gold, are ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 16, 2014
Perhaps. I'm more bearish. 10y UST is at solid resistance (support in case of yields) right now. If you're bullish it's better to own actual treasuries because of higher carry (volatility adjusted ofc.) and vice versa (unless you're expecting a ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 16, 2014
There's not that many variables. If you can figure out where the US 10y gov't yield is headed you'll do better than most. image
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 14, 2014
The road to ruin is paved with positive carry.
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 14, 2014
I very much doubt the jawboning by ECB and government officials will have a lasting impact. I believe the upward trend in EUR/USD is caused by a relative improvement in short-end real yields in EZ in addition to net FDI and portfolio investment ...
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 3, 2014
USDX image The inverse H&S neckline in the dollar index (major's) has been breached while EUR/USD is still resting on support. I expect a continuation, assuming NFP figures (incl. revisions) are not too far below consensus (a big if..).
- Jimbaloo replied Apr 1, 2014
Hi folks! Here's some big picture contributions. EURUSD and real rates image Would be much easier (and probably more accurate) with direct access thru a Bloomberg or Eikon terminal. Real effective exchange rates image image JPY strengthened ...