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- mcxjay replied Aug 7, 2015
Interesting take on NFP: url
- mcxjay replied Aug 5, 2015
In my personal humble view (I've been short EUR/USD from 1.39xx) I think we are heading much lower this time unless the jobs number is a big screw up. Big argument is that net short positions are lowest in months and the crowd expects another of ...
- mcxjay replied Aug 4, 2015
Gents what is your daily 200MA for EUR/USD? Investing.com states 1.1220, but when I plot this on a graph I get a much higher number of 1.1429?
- mcxjay replied Jul 30, 2015
OK, so we start getting contrarian views as supposed to only expectation of EUR/USD going to parity: url This is good. The more it looks like it can only go up, the higher probability that it eventually goes down. UBS argues that back in 2004 when ...
- mcxjay replied Jun 24, 2015
Correct! You see it touched 1.1220 when DAX was at 11520, no it is 11550 ane EUR/USD had back to 1.1210.
- mcxjay replied Jun 24, 2015
I meant the other way round heh if DAX goes up, EUR/USD will go down
- mcxjay replied Jun 24, 2015
I would count on the opposite If Ifo is good DAX moves up and so does the EUR/USD. Now it is 1.1217 because DAX fell to 11520. If we get a strong rebounce from 11490 to 11600 we'll see EUR/USD 1.1150. Otherwise further correct to 1.1250 perhaps.
- mcxjay replied Jun 24, 2015
Gents observe DAX! There is a strong correlation now between DAX and EUR/USD rate. Yesterday recovery from 11.40 was caused by DAX moving from 11640 to 11.560. EUR is not an asset. It is carry currency which means that when there is appetite for ...
- mcxjay replied Jun 23, 2015
It's all about DAX stupid! Funds entering DAX like crazy and hedging EUR exposure with shorts! It was never about Greece. Because of Greece EUR stocks were going down and traders where unwinding their short EUR hedges, that's why EUR was going UP. ...
- mcxjay replied Dec 19, 2014
OK so we'll probably hit 1.22, or little below 1.2180 before retrace. How much retrace do you guys expect? 1.2280, 1.2360?
- mcxjay replied Dec 18, 2014
Also when the was flight to safety and investors were buying CHF like crazy SNB had to sell CHF and buy EUR to protect the peg. Now with negative rates there is no buying pressure on CHF so SNB doesn't need to buy EUR any more, hence the drop below ...
- mcxjay replied Dec 17, 2014
"Bank of Russia sold $1.961B worth of FX to settle yesterday" This could explain a little yesterday bull rush
- mcxjay replied Dec 16, 2014
I guess RCB and all other EM central banks are selling USD reserves like crazy to protect their currencies. Once they stop it is going to be a free fall and as for EUR/USD we should zoom past 1.20 without much trouble. The big question is where is ...
- mcxjay replied Dec 12, 2014
This is my plan as well. By the time we get to top 1.26 there will be plenty of screaming and calling for 1.30 and people going long. This is when you have to take the shorts. Today @1.2420 I closed my 150K EUR shorts and will start building short ...
- mcxjay replied Dec 12, 2014
OK guys it seems like the big guys really want to pump EUR up to 25-26 level before crushing it down again, no matter how strong the fundamentals are. Just closed my shorts and will wait to re-enter higher up starting to build my positions around ...
- mcxjay replied Dec 11, 2014
Well some even call for 1.284! I guess it is all the analysts like the one below feeding this BS url
- mcxjay replied Dec 11, 2014
OK, here we go 9.00 am NY we're going down, while SP and DOW up! The correlation between stocks and USD strength is becoming really visible.
- mcxjay replied Dec 11, 2014
Exactly like few weeks ago, all the good data, but EUR is like the currency Phoenix that just won't go down. Looks like a set-up to me that is just waiting for the right trigger to free fall, possibly well below 1.22. The more it holds the higher ...
- mcxjay replied Dec 11, 2014
The only reasonable explanation for EUR is strength is that SNB is buying EUR to push down EUR/CHF