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The pessimism trades which have dominated so far in 2016 showed signs of faltering last week and a few key releases this week will determine whether the forces of optimism can secure a further fight-back. Fading Euro and yen rallies looks the best ...
The stage-managed and ‘politics of illusion’ deal on revised EU membership terms for the UK illustrated yet another failure of European decision making. The charade convinced nobody while the much more urgent and pressing migration crisis was ...
After the last-minute deal to secure a deal on revised UK terms for EU membership, the positive Sterling impact is likely to be very short lived. Crucially, London Mayor Boris Johnson has announced that he will campaign for an EU exit in the ...
After another bruising few days global financial markets showed some degree of stabilisation after Friday's US retail sales data, but seven key factors are required to secure more than a brief respite from risk aversion. Firstly, the PBOC needs to ...
Nervous consolidation is the most likely outcome for the week, especially with the Chinese elephant missing from the the global room due to a week-long holiday. Friday's payrolls data will help steady dollar nerves to some extent and Yellen is ...
Fears surrounding the Chinese outlook and increasing capital outflows have been major contributors to deteriorating risk appetite so far in 2016. The Bank of Japan move to negative interest rates has also increased fears over another escalation in ...
The forces of hope and fear will do battle on numerous fronts during the coming week. Data points will be important in determining whether fear gains a further stranglehold or whether there is a shift to slightly more optimistic tone amid hopes that ...
Media headlines surrounding the huge East Coast blizzard should fade just in time for the latest Fed statement on Wednesday. Although referencing international risks, the FOMC is likely to avoid excessive pessimism while insisting that future rate ...
The EU and Euro-zone will both need improved economic growth, together with strong and adaptive, inter-governmental cohesion to survive intact and resolve serious political stresses. Although credit conditions have improved, the latest market ...
Risk conditions will continue to dominate and sentiment strongly influenced by Thursday's ECB press conference. There will certainly be ECB concerns over fresh downside inflation risks, but too negative a stance from President Draghi would add fuel ...
The Bank of England is likely to leave interest rates on hold at Thursday's meeting potentially on a 9-0 vote with McCafferty dropping calls for a hike while the policy summary is likely to be more downbeat. The dovish tone will be tempered by the ...
China's policymakers will be hurting after the chaos seen last week. There are certainly important grounds for fear and the yuan is likely to weaken further over the medium term. In the very short term, however, there will be re-doubled efforts to ...
The dollar was able to strengthen against European currencies in the final few days of 2015 despite some disappointing data, but a significant element is likely to have been year-end window dressing and the US currency will be vulnerable to at least ...
A lack of liquidity will be a key feature of the week as markets wind down towards the holiday period and new year, especially as trading will be at a standstill on Friday, with the risk of erratic moves as orders hit the vacuum of emptying trading ...
In overall terms the main FOMC feature was a lack of controversy and major new talking points with no dissent on the call while the statement and press conference were crafted extremely carefully. In essence, the Fed wanted to show that it could ...
'The Federal open market committee decided today to raise the target rate for the Federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%'. This was the opening line from the FOMC meeting on June 29th 2006, the last time the Fed moved to raise interest ...
In relative terms, the week ahead should be a more subdued affair sandwiched between last week's ferocious Euro short-covering squeeze after the ECB meeting and next week's first Federal Reserve interest rate increase for nine years. Positioning ...
Even with very important US events, the ECB policy meeting will be crucial for Euro/dollar direction this week. Bank President Draghi wants to surprise markets with a bold and aggressive decision which triggers a decisive shift in expectations and ...
Dollar bulls will be looking to take advantage of low volumes and poor liquidity this week and drive the Euro through key EUR/USD support levels around 1.0600 and potentially below 1.0500 as expectations of monetary divergence continues. The latest ...