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Quantifying the Impact of Foreign Economic Uncertainty on the U.S. Economy

From federalreserve.gov

Uncertainty about economic conditions abroad is frequently mentioned as a risk, a cross current, or a headwind to the U.S. outlook. However, there is little evidence linking foreign uncertainty to U.S. economic conditions. One challenge in looking for this evidence is how exactly to measure uncertainty. In this note, we construct a measure of real economic uncertainty (REU), which is based on the predictability of near-term economic performance, for the major advanced economies. We find that an increase in uncertainty about foreign economic conditions is associated with an economically meaningful decline in U.S. ... (full story)

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  • Category: Fundamental Analysis