The preliminary Russian balance of payments suggests a material decline in the monthly current account surplus from US$5.6 billion in July to US$3.0 bn in August amid a US$5/bbl drop in the oil price over the period. This puts the likely 3Q19 current account surplus in the middle of our US$10-15 bn forecast range and the full-year forecast at around US$90 bn (vs. US$54.4 bn for 8M19) if oil prices remain at the current level, which is our base case scenario; Surprisingly, the net private capital flows turned positive: after negative US$0.7 bn in July (without Sberbank's sale of its Turkish asset this outflow could ... (full story)