For the past 15 years, soybean oil prices have often forerun movements in crude oil prices, a phenomenon possibly tied to biofuel mandates in 65 countries and the relatively small size of the vegetable oil market compared to crude oil. By our count, there have been a dozen major episodes of soybean oil either topping out or hitting bottom ahead of crude oil over the past 15 years (see list below). Soybean oil prices peaked on February 6 this year and have since fallen by 14%. Over the same period, prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil have advanced by 14%. If past cycles are any indication, the current ... (full story)