December’s headline inflation brought an upside surprise, but given that this was mainly down to seasonal factors (which helped offset the decline in gasoline prices), it is unlikely we'll see a repeat in January’s data. Instead, we expect the downward trend in headline inflation to resume as weak energy prices continue to feed through. We should see the annual figure come down to 1.6% from 2.0% in December. Despite a better start to 2019 for crude (Brent rose from 54 to 61 USD/bbl between December and January), oil prices tend to translate into gasoline costs with a one-month lag. That means the late-2018 oil price ... (full story)