Everyone is familiar with the Base, High & Low scenario approach to power market analysis. This is rooted in common sense. What is our best guess of what could happen (Base)? How could we be wrong (High & Low)? However, the large scale roll out of intermittent renewable capacity in power markets has undermined this traditional scenario approach. The inherent uncertainty of wind & solar output patterns and the substantial range of volume swings requires something new. Probabilistic (e.g. simulation) based analysis of power markets is needed to properly understand: 1. The distributions of potential market outcomes ... (full story)