When I first started doing this sort of job, pre-internet, oil prices were still one of the key inputs to any forecasting process. I wasn't any better at second-guessing the direction of the greasy black stuff then, but at least we could apply "ready reckoners" of the impact of oil fluctuations on GDP. Of course, these were very imprecise and took place against the backdrop where the variance of crude was a few dollars, but at those levels, that still represented a sizeable percentage move. Fast forward to today - and oil prices, even after their latest fall, are many times greater than they were when I first ... (full story)