On August 10, we downgraded our outlook on WTI from neutral to bearish thanks to a significant deterioration of the trend. We determine trends for a number of major currencies and commodities based on price, trading volumes and changes in volatility. Following WTI’s latest top at $75.37/barrel, sell-offs in the commodity have been accompanied by accelerating trading volumes. This is a bearish sign that suggests that traders are selling crude oil with conviction. The trend in underlying volatility (based on the CBOE crude oil volatility index) also suggests increasing volatility in the foreseeable future. Since that ... (full story)