This time is different. I consider those the four most dangerous words in economics. Today, policymakers are paying increased attention to the so-called flattening yield curve — the difference in yields between long-term and short-term Treasury bonds. For the past 50 years, an inverted yield curve, where short rates are higher than long rates, has been an excellent predictor of a U.S. recession. In fact, during this half-century period, each time the yield curve has inverted, a recession has followed. Over the past two-and-a-half years, as the Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates, the yield curve ... (full story)