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Preview of RBNZ May 2024 Monetary Policy Statement
We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR at 5.5% at its May Monetary Policy Statement. • The RBNZ will likely remain comfortable with the forward outlook communicated in the February Monetary Policy Statement. • We don’t see a significant change in the RBNZ’s projections for the OCR – easing still looks like a 2025 affair. • Weaker than expected GDP growth and numerous indications of a flat economy should trigger a downward adjustment in the 2024 growth profile. • But the inflation outlook remains challenging as a non-tradables driven upward inflation surprise in Q1 2024 likely implies a still elevated ... (full story)