The Bank of England is right to draw a distinction between the UK and US inflation outlook, and we expect the first rate cut to be in August or maybe even June. Sterling could come under greater pressure, but we think this is less of a concern for the BoE now than it was in 2022 or 2023. The Bank of England is trying to tell us something, and markets are finally starting to take notice. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has hammered home the message that the UK’s inflation outlook is “rather different” to the US. That sentiment was echoed by Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden last week who said that the UK is ... (full story)