We believe the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend places some additional stress on the oil markets. However, we also think the ample public and private forewarning from Iran amid rising regional tensions means the attack was already reflected in oil prices via a higher geopolitical risk premium. We attribute nearly all the increase in oil prices (to around $91 a barrel from the mid-70s in February) to geopolitical concerns rather than supply risks. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ have about 5 million barrels per day of supply (if not more) that can be returned to the markets if ... (full story)