The big question for the April 1 week relates to the underlying conditions for the US labor market. Will the change in nonfarm payrolls in March close out the first quarter 2024 at a continued strong pace and will the unemployment rate remain consistent with a tight labor market? Early forecasts for nonfarm payrolls in March look for an increase in the 175,000-200,000 range. So far for the first quarter 2024, the monthly average is 252,000 compared to monthly averages of 201,000, 216,000, and 212,000 in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2023, respectively. A March increase toward the lower end of the forecast ... (full story)