It’s been a turbulent start to the year, one in which we’ve seen significant shifts in expectations for the economy, interest rates, and the markets. This past week was evidence of that with inflation exceeding expectations while retail sales dived at the start of the year. That’s not made the Federal Reserve’s job of determining when the correct time to start cutting rates any easier. The mixed data since the last meeting though makes the FOMC minutes – released on Wednesday – all the more interesting. March appears unlikely for the first cut but the minutes could tell us how close policymakers think they are. ... (full story)