US CPI inflation landed weaker than expected as shown in the table. That drove a violent reaction toward lower yields across the US Treasury curve and the fuller short-term rates complex with spillover effects across global benchmarks. Markets are pricing no further hikes and a decent shot at a Fed rate cut by the March 20th FOMC date with most of a cut priced by the May 1st meeting. Over 100bps of cuts are priced by the end of next year into early 2025 which is double the 50bps guided in the September FOMC dot plot that also probably implied cutting late in the year. The FOMC will set a higher bar for cuts than ... (full story)