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Crude Oil Forecast: Tries to Build a Base
Crude oil markets once again witnessed a resurgence in activity during Friday's trading session, characterized by the persistent presence of turbulent price fluctuations. The WTI Crude Oil market displayed renewed vitality on Friday, with the $75 level emerging as a critical support threshold. This level holds significant psychological importance due to its round figure status and has previously proven to be a zone of substantial market activity. Consequently, it is not surprising to see buyers showing interest in this region, as a breach below $75 could potentially trigger a deeper wave of selling. Such a breakdown ... (full story)
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In October, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) fell by $2.82, or 3.0%, m-o-m, to an average of $91.78/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by $3.89, or 4.2%, m-o-m, to $88.70/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $3.96, or 4.4%, m-o-m, to average $85.47/b. The DME Oman front-month contract fell by $4.06, or 4.3%, m-o-m, to settle at $89.31/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened in October by 7¢ to average $3.23/b. The market structure strengthened further as the front end of futures forward curves for ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman steepened on concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions, fuelling price volatility and contributing to the drop in futures prices. World Economy The forecast for world economic growth remains unchanged at 2.8% for 2023 and 2.6% for 2024. US economic growth is revised up to 2.3% for 2023 and 0.9% for 2024. Eurozone economic growth is revised down for both 2023 and 2024 to stand at 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2023 is revised up to 1.9%, while growth in 2024 remains at 1.0%. The forecast for China remains unchanged at 5.2% for 2023 and 4.8% for 2024. India’s growth forecast remains unchanged at 6.2% for 2023 and 5.9% for 2024. Brazil’s forecast also remains unchanged at 2.5% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. Russia’s economic growth forecast is revised up to 1.9% for 2023 and 1.2% for 2024. World Oil Demand The world oil demand growth forecast for 2023 is revised up marginally from the previous month’s assessment to 2.5 mb/d. Revisions to data for the OECD countries throughout the first three quarters largely offset each other. In the non-OECD, the upward revisions to China’s oil demand in both 3Q23 and 4Q23 outpaced the downward revisions in the non-OECD region in 3Q23. In 2023, OECD oil demand is expected to rise by around 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand is expected to increase by 2.4 mb/d. For 2024, world oil demand is expected to grow by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The OECD is expected to expand by about 0.3 mb/d in 2024, with OECD Americas contributing the largest increase. The non-OECD is set to drive next year’s growth, increasing by about 2.0 mb/d, with China, the Middle East, Other Asia and India contributing the most. World Oil Supply Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forec post: OPEC RAISES 2023 NON-OPEC SUPPLY-GROWTH FORECAST BY 100,000 BPD TO 1.8 MLN BPD. post: OPEC: OPEC CRUDE OIL OUTPUT ROSE BY 80,000 BPD TO 27.90 MILLION BPD IN OCTOBER LED BY IRAN, ANGOLA AND NIGERIA. post: OPEC: DESPITE OVERBLOWN NEGATIVE SENTIMENT REGARDING CHINA’S OIL DEMAND PERFORMANCE, CHINESE CRUDE IMPORTS REMAIN VERY HEALTHY. post: OPEC: GLOBAL OIL MARKET FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN STRONG DESPITE EXAGGERATED NEGATIVE SENTIMENTS.
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- Posted: Nov 13, 2023 7:00am
- Submitted by:Category: Technical AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 268