Higher-than-expected oil prices in a scenario where the Middle East conflict disrupts oil supply would cause lower economic growth and higher inflation, Fitch Ratings says. World GDP growth would be 0.4pp lower in 2024, but only 0.1pp lower in 2025, although the absence of a significant rebound suggests there could be a persistent moderate impact beyond the initial shock. Fitch’s September Global Economic Outlook (GEO) assumes average oil prices of USD75 a barrel (bbl) and USD70/bbl in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Using simulations from the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model, we estimated the impact of higher oil ... (full story)