Preliminary UMich consumer sentiment data for November 2023 • Prior was 63.8 • Current conditions 65.7 vs 69.5 expected (70.6 prior). • Expectations 56.9 vs 59.5 expected (66.0 prior). • 1-year inflation 4.4% vs 4.2% prior. • 5-10 year 3.2% vs 3.0% prior. This survey is more about gasoline prices and the political mood than anything else. That said, the Fed cares about it and seeing the jump in inflation expectations even as gasoline prices have been sliding is a real concern. The 3.2% longer-term number is also just shy of the 2022 high of 2.3% and has accelerated rapidly from 2.7%. (full story)

Consumer sentiment in the US continued to weaken in November, with the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index declining to 60.4 from 63.8 in October. This reading fell short of the market expectation of 63.7. Further details of the publication revealed that the Current Conditions Index fell to 65.7 from 70.6 and the Expectations Index retreated to 56.9 from 59.3. The one-year inflation outlook jumped rose to 4.4% from 4.2%, while the 5-year inflation outlook climbed to 3.2% from 3%. Market reaction The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to these data and was last seen posting small daily ... (full story)

After soaring in October, UMich surveyed inflation expectations were expected to moderate slightly in preliminary November data. They did not! 12-month inflation expectations shot higher still from 4.2% to 4.4% (exp 4.0%) and 5-10 year inflation exp rose to 3.2% (hotter than the 3.0% prior and expected)...{chart} That is the highest medium-term inflation expectation since 2011. Gas price expectations, both over the short and long run, rose to their highest readings this year. Consensus forecast for 'expectations' to rise and 'current conditions' to fade further from October's weakness, but consumer sentiment slipped ... (full story)