The European Central Bank will, for once, face almost a no-brainer this month and keep rates unchanged, as we discuss in our preview. Inflation slowed more than expected in September, bond yields have jumped, and new sources of geopolitical risk will weigh on the growth outlook. Higher oil prices may delay the return to 2% inflation beyond the end of 2025, but that is likely a concern for December when new staff projections will be released. A dovish tilt in the ECB’s communication already happened, at least in the eyes of the market, at the September policy meeting. However, in the days after that meeting, ECB ... (full story)