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Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Energy’s 2% Tumble: Navigating the Next Wave
Natural Gas: chart For October 11, Natural Gas is experiencing a downward trajectory, trading at $3.237, marking a decrease of 4.29% within the past 24 hours on a 4-hour chart timeframe. Key price levels to watch include a pivot point at $2.87. The immediate resistance stands at $3.11, followed by $3.27 and $3.51. On the flip side, the immediate support is at $2.72, with subsequent levels at $2.47 and $2.32. Investors and traders will be keenly observing these markers in the coming trading sessions. WTI Oil: chart On October 11, WTI Crude Oil (WTI) reflected a bearish trend on a 4-hour chart timeframe, with its ... (full story)
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In our International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023), we project that global energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 2050 in a number of IEO2023 cases as global population ...
Winter Fuels Outlook. This month we are publishing our Winter Fuels Outlook, which discusses our expectations of household energy consumption and expenditures for the upcoming 2023–24 winter season. We expect U.S. households that use natural gas, electricity, or propane as their main heating fuel to spend less on heating this winter compared with last winter. Households that use heating oil are expected to spend slightly more. • OPEC+ production. Beginning this month, our Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) OPEC crude oil production table will feature a new OPEC+ crude oil production forecast. The estimate includes combined crude oil production from the 10 members of OPEC subject to production targets (OPEC10), as well as all non-OPEC crude oil production within the OPEC+ group. We expect OPEC+ members will decrease their crude oil production by 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024 compared with this year. • Global oil markets. Global oil inventories in our forecast fall by 0.2 million b/d in the second half of 2023 (2H23) because a voluntary production cut from Saudi Arabia and reduced production targets among OPEC+ countries keep global oil production below global oil consumption. As a result, we expect upward pressure on crude oil prices, with the Brent spot price increasing to average $95 per barrel (b) in 2024. • U.S. jet fuel consumption. We for post: #OOTT | EIA STEO Current Yr Crude F'cast (Bpd) Oct: 12.92 (prev 12.78) - Forward Yr Crude F'cast (Bpd): 13.12 (prev 13.16) - Current Yr Dry NatGas F'cast (Bcf/d): 103.72 (prev 102.69) - Forward Yr Dry NatGas F'cast (Bcf/d): 105.13 (prev 104.93) https://t.co/lrkVjEAXgd Winter Fuels Outlook 2023–24 Winter heating prices for U.S. households are expected to remain relatively flat or decrease this season, depending on main heating fuel households use and the region in which they are located. Because we expect natural gas prices will be lower than last year, the 46% of U.S. households that use natural gas as their main heating fuel will likely spend less on heating this winter compared with last winter. This winter, we expect temperatures in the western United States to be warmer than the previous winter, which was much colder than average. As a result, households in the West, regardless of fuel, will likely spend less on heating this winter compared with last winter. Combined, households that heat with natural gas and those that are in the West account for a total of 56% of all U.S. households. For homes that primarily heat using electricity, we expect expenditures mostly in line with last winter that do not vary much based on weather outcomes. In our base temperature case, we expect spending by homes heating primarily with propane will decrease slightly, but expenditures for homes using propane will vary significantly based on region and actual weather outcomes. Expenditures for homes heating primarily with heating oil are up from last year in our forecast unless actual winter temperatures are warmer than expected.
post: BOSTIC: DON'T THINK WE NEED TO DO ANYTHING MORE WITH RATES BOSTIC: THERE ARE A LOT OF SIGNS ECONOMY IS STARTING TO SLOW
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The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. U.S. data releases generally pointed to greater economic resilience than previously thought, and the reaction in market pricing implied both a higher expected trajectory for the policy rate at longer horizons and higher term premiums. Policy-sensitive rates rose moderately, and longer-dated forward rates displayed larger increases. Ten-year Treasury yields ended the period more than 40 basis points higher, and broad measures of equity prices fell. Bank equity prices underperformed over the period, but taking a somewhat longer view, investor sentiment toward the banking sector appeared to have largely stabilized, with less differentiation of equity price movements across bank types. The dollar broadly appreciated against advanced-economy currencies over the period, as stronger U.S. data supported moderately increased yield differentials against these economies amid perceptions that policy rates were at or near their peaks. In China, signs of strain in the property sector increased, and optimism about growth diminished further, on net, although broader markets, including global commodity markets, did not appear to show elevated concern about China-related risks. U.S. financial conditions tightened, with higher longer-term rates, lower equity prices, and a stronger dollar contributing roughly equally to the increase in various financial conditions indexes. In addressing the increase in nominal yields on longer-run Treasury securities over the intermeeting period, the manager noted that the rise in real yields exceeded that of nominal yields over the period, implying a small decline in inflation compensation. Inflation expectations appeared to remain very well anchored. Market participants cited various factors for the rise in longer-term nominal yields, including stronger-than-expected economic data, a possible increase in the neutral policy rate, greater economic and policy uncertainty, and larger-than-expected borrowing by the Treasury. Household and corporate borrowing rates increased over the period, generally rising in line with Treasury yields. Still, market participants noted that, with household and corporate borrowers having a limited need to refinance debt in the near term, it could take more time for past monetary policy actions to fully pass through to these sectors. Regarding expectations for the September FOMC meeting, the manager noted that responses to the Open Market Desk's Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants and mark post: *FED: 'ALL' AGREED RATES SHOULD STAY RESTRICTIVE FOR SOME TIME *FED OFFICIALS GENERALLY SAW RISKS TO GOALS AS MORE TWO-SIDED *FOMC MINUTES SHOW ALL AGREED FED CAN 'PROCEED CAREFULLY' *FED: MOST CONTINUED TO SEE UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS post: FED MINUTES: THE VAST MAJORITY OF PARTICIPANTS CONTINUE TO JUDGE FUTURE PATH OF THE ECONOMY AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. post: FED MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS SAID INFLATION WAS UNACCEPTABLY HIGH, MORE EVIDENCE NEEDED TO BE CONFIDENT PRICE PRESSURES EBBING. post: Fed Minutes: Several participants commented that with policy rate at or near peak, decisions and communications should shift to how long rates stay restrictive versus how high they will rise.
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India’s diesel exports loading for Europe hit a record high in September amid open arbitrage for westbound shipments, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing tanker-tracking data ...
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- Posted: Oct 11, 2023 1:37pm
- Submitted by:Category: Technical AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 338