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10-year Treasury yield retreats from high last seen in 2007 as Fed policy decision looms
U.S. Treasury yields dipped slightly on Wednesday, pulling the 10-year yield back from highs not seen in more than 15 years as investors awaited the latest update out of the Federal Reserve. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by around 2 basis points to 4.343%, a day after after trading at levels last seen in November 2007. The 2-year Treasury was last lower by nearly 4 basis points at 5.071% after nearing November 2007 highs on Tuesday. The 30-year Treasury yield slipped by more than 1 basis point to 4.414%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship. One basis point equals 0.01%. The Fed is due to ... (full story)
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Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening post: Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged @ 5.5% Est. 5.50% post: FOMC STATMENT COMPARE >>>> pic.twitter.com/8yog93qC8h post: MORE FOMC:NO DISSENTS; SEES 5.1% RATE AT YEAREND; TIGHTER CREDIT LIKELY TO WEIGH ON ECON ACTIVITY, HIRING AND INFLATION #FederalReserve #FOMC post: Fed Repeats Language On 'Extent Of Additional Policy Firming' -Job Gains Slowed In Recent Months But Remain Strong
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 19–20, 2023, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2023 to 2026 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability post: Fed Projections Imply One More 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike This Year and 50 Bps of Rate Cuts in 2024, Versus 100 Bps of 2024 Cuts in June Projections post: Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’23: 5.6% [Prev. 5.6%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’24: 5.1% [Prev. 4.6%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’25: 3.9% [Prev. 3.4%] Fed’s Median Rate Forecast End-’26: 2.9% Fed’s Median Rate Forecast Longer-Run: 2.5% [Prev. 2.5%] post: 2024 dots remove 2 rate cuts: median rises from 4.6% to 5.1% How long until the market interprets this as ECB 2.0 and unleashes stagflation trade pic.twitter.com/8gGiSShyyI
post: S&P: US RECESSION RISK STILL ELEVATED AMID UNCERTAIN GROWTH PROSPECTS. post: S&P: THE PROBABILITY OF A RECESSION IN THE US STARTING WITHIN NEXT 12 MONTHS HAS MODERATED SINCE BEGINNING OF YEAR BUT REMAINS ELEVATED AT 30%-35%. post: US Recession Risk Still Elevated While the probability of a recession in the US within the next 12 months has fallen since the beginning of the year, it still remains at 30% to 35%, S&P Global Ratings Economics said. Satyam Panday, S&P Global Ratings Chief Economist, US and…
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- Posted: Sep 20, 2023 1:25pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 3,523
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