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Take the Fed forecast with a grain of salt. It has a terrible track record
Today, the Federal Reserve will publish its latest economic forecasts. There will be an intense focus on the Summary of Economic Projections, which is the Fed’s own estimates for GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation and the appropriate policy interest rate. The summary will be released as an addendum to the statement following Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Commitee meeting. Investors will carefully study these projections, and they will likely move the market. But should you change your investment portfolio based on the Fed’s projections? You probably should not. The Fed’s poor forecasting record: ... (full story)