So, what will the Fed do at its latest meeting? The short version is that almost everyone thinks it will raise rates by 75 bps (or 3/4 of a percent). Almost, in this case, means that a minority of people think the Fed will raise rates by more, like a full percentage point. The takeaway is that everyone does expect rates to go up—and by an amount that, prior to the past couple of months, would have been shockingly large. The rate increase itself is fully incorporated into markets. Don’t expect much, if any, reaction from a 75-point decision. If we get a 100-point decision? That might generate some market reaction. But ... (full story)