There are a lot of irrational expectations surrounding today's FOMC minutes. On one hand the minutes are expected to detail the Fed's dovish breakaway from forward guidance (as the Fed, like the BOE, finally admitted it has no clue what will happen next week let alone net year). On the other, the market is looking for clues on the rate path and the terminal rate... or in other words, forward guidance. Sigh. Then again, in a market as broken as this one, and where Powell cornered himself after he... • classified 75bps as “extra ordinary” & highlighted the lagged effects of rate hikes • spoke of growth slowdown and ... (full story)