Consumer spending is still the main US growth driver. While incomes are not keeping pace with the rising cost of living, today's data suggests households are prepared to run down some of their accumulated savings to maintain lifestyles. With trade and inventory data also improving from 1Q levels we are firmly expecting 3%+ GDP growth in 2Q. Spending momentum remains strong Today’s consumer spending numbers are very encouraging, rising 0.7% month-on-month in real terms in April after an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in March. The Omicron wave of the pandemic had been impacting the December-February numbers, but it is ... (full story)