We have revised our inflation forecasts to include the effects of a ban on Russian oil and further food price pressures. We now forecast 7.5% inflation for 2022 and 3.6% next year. While we expect inflation to peak in the second half of the year, the descend will be slower than historically. Inflation is driven by supply factors, which should limit the price effects of demand destruction. This also means that upside risks remain, as we detail below. European leaders have drawn up plans to phase out Russian fossil fuels. Coal is already part of the fifth EU sanction package, and last week EC President Von der Leyen ... (full story)