Well, that hurt. Retail sales were a big disappointment and there will probably be further weakness into at least the early part of 2022Q1 such that the soft patch is not over yet. There are nevertheless several reasons for the weakness that caution against a bearish consumer narrative set against what are otherwise solid consumer fundamentals. What Happened In December? First, the results. The value of retail sales in the advance estimates was down by 1.9% m/m with the ex-autos component down by -2.3% and with sales ex-autos and gas falling by 2.5% m/m. Breadth to the weakness was very high. Chart 1 shows the ... (full story)