US September 2021 retail sales data: • Prior was +2.5% m/m • Retail sales ex autos +0.8% vs +0.5% expected • Prior ex autos +1.8 • Retail sales control group +0.8% vs +0.4% expected • Prior control group +2.5 • Retail sales ex auto and gas +0.7% vs +2.0% prior Never underestimate the spending power of the US consumer. I highlighted some Bank of America card spending data that pointed to a miss in this data and it made sense. Well, the opposite happened with a very good report, pending the details. (full story)

On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.7% from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 13.9 percent from September 2020. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $625.4 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and 13.9 percent above September 2020. ... The July 2021 to August 2021 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 0.9 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is ... (full story)

Given the flip-flopping nature of the last 5 months, US retail sales are expected to decline modestly in September (and if BofA's excellent predictive track record continues, the drop in retail sales could be a lot worse). However, for once, BofA was way off as Retail Sales surged 0.7% MoM in September (far better than the -0.2% expected) and August's data was revised higher from +0.7% to +0.9% MoM. Core retail sales also beat expectations, rising 0.8% MoM versus +0.5% expected (and saw higher revisions). It appears that surging COVID infections in August and September curbed demand for services such as travel and ... (full story)