A spike in a narrow set of prices—notably for autos, airfares and hotels—has driven the rapid increase in inflation in 2021. Still, the inflation rate excluding these categories, as well as food, energy and housing services, was 2.8 percent over the 12 months ended in August 2021, up from 1.7 percent in February 2020. This suggests the underlying pace of inflation has been strong, although more moderate than the headline rate. If inflation excluding these categories continues at 2.8 percent in 2022, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is likely to be in the range of 2.2 percent to 3.2 percent, ... (full story)