Underinvestment in oil supply will lead to a tight oil market later this decade. It’s a narrative that’s gained increasing traction as capital expenditure on upstream oil and gas has shrunk. Spend in 2021 is half the peak of 2014 after slumping to new depths in last year’s crisis. I asked Harry Paton of our Oil Supply team and Ann Louise Hittle, Head of Macro Oils, how they see the medium-term market fundamentals developing and the implications for price. How much new oil supply does the world need? A lot - we reckon about 20 million b/d from 2022 to 2030. This is the ‘supply gap’, the difference between our estimate ... (full story)