The ISM manufacturing index has risen to 43.1 in May from 41.5 in April and all the important sub-components – production, new orders and employment – have improved, but they continue to tell a very painful story. One that suggests manufacturing output will fall by more than 20% with investment in the sector likely to contract through much of the rest of the year. During the Global Financial Crisis the headline ISM index bottomed at 34.5 (December 2008) so hitting a low of “only” 41.5 in April doesn’t seem all that terrible. In the current crisis though the headline is being artificially inflated by the supplier ... (full story)