RU Industrial Production y/y

Russia produced 49.2 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas in November, up 1.9% on the same month last year, according to data published on Wednesday by the Rosstat statistics office, the fourth month in a row output had risen. November's output amounted to a slight decline of 0.1% compared to October. But in the January-November period, natural gas output was 479 bcm, down 8.5% on the same period in 2022. Rosstat also said production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose 4.1% last month on an annual basis to 3.0 million metric ...

Russian industrial production dropped 3.7% year-on-year in February, which is a deterioration vs. the upwardly revised -1.9% YoY (from an initial -2.5% YoY) seen in January and a material underperformance vs. -2.0% YoY Reuters consensus. Meanwhile, the result is still better than our conservative forecast of -4.8% YoY, which was based on expectations of restrained economic activity and adverse calendar effect related to the 2020 leap year. We have the following takeaways: • To remind, any first estimate of Russian industrial ...

The offical first estimate of January industrial output in Russia indicates a 2.5% YoY drop, which may seem like a huge disappointment relative to the Reuters consensus of -0.1% and our +0.3% YoY forecast. However, we doubt this number is indicative of actual trends in industrial output. Firstly, as we have warned, the January data is heavily affected by an adverse calendar effect of around 1 pps on the one hand, and by moderate positive effect of around 0.5 pps thanks to cold weather (through higher output of electricity and heat). ...

According to preliminary data, Russian industrial production saw a very shallow 0.2% year-on-year drop in December 2020, which is significantly better than the -3.0% Reuters consensus and our expectations of -1.5%. As a result of this and a 1.1 percentage point upgrade of the November number to -1.5% YoY, the full-year drop in industrial production was limited to -2.9% YoY, which is better than the -3.5% we expected. We generally take the numbers positively, but note that a number of support factors might have been temporary: The ...

Any comparison of September's 5.0% year-on-year drop of industrial production to consensus would be irrelevant given that this release has been accompanied by a massive backward-looking revision of the dataset starting 2019 – which is a part of Rosstat's (the national statistics service) regular routine of expanding the data inputs. Overall, the new data paints a better picture of the IP performance in 2019 and in 8M20 than previously believed, but compared to that the most recent September data looks like a disappointment. ...

Russian industrial production should post a mild improvement in September, however, it will be largely a reflection of the favourable calendar effect (extra working day, supporting manufacturing data), rather than improvement in the mood, as shown by the recent deterioration in the PMI reading. The stabilization and potential rollback in the fiscal support (also likely to be confirmed by the budget fulfilment data to be released next week) and uncertainties regarding consumer demand should limit the pace of the recovery. This, ...

Manufacturing sector underperforms despite favourable calendar effect and recovery in consumer-driven sectors Russian industrial production dropped 9.4% year-on-year in June, showing little improvement vs. the 9.6% YoY drop in May. The June result is worse than the -7.2% consensus and is even further away from our more optimistic expectations of -6.0%. The negative result comes despite the favourable calendar effect. Even accounting for the extra day-off related to the constitutional vote (Wednesday, 1 July), the number of working ...