US Congressional Elections

Republicans on Saturday were close to clinching control of the U.S. House of Representatives, a critical element for President-elect Donald Trump to advance his agenda when he returns to the White House in January. With votes still being counted from the Nov. 5 general election, Republicans had won 213 seats in the 435-member House, according to Edison Research, which projected on Saturday night that Representative Dan Newhouse had enough votes to keep Republican control of Colorado's 3rd congressional district. Republicans need to ...

A Trump victory in the US election has significantly impacted the US dollar, driving it to a four-month high. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 105.00, reaching levels unseen since early July. This increase comes from expectations that Trump’s economic policies, including tax cuts, increased government spending, and potential tariffs, will lead to higher inflation. Consequently, these inflationary concerns may push the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary stance. Historically, the dollar has strengthened under ...

Donald Trump has been elected President again. TV networks called the race at around 5:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, and the AP called the race shortly after. A win in Wisconsin put him over the 270 electoral college vote threshold. The market is responding how we would have expected in the event of a Republican sweep—U.S. large-cap stocks, small-cap stock, and bond yields are all sharply higher. S&P 500 futures are up another +2.3% on top of yesterday’s +1.1% gain. Yesterday, all 11 sectors were higher, and breadth was the best ...

The U.S. election results will shift the economic landscape, particularly if the Republicans also manage to hold onto the House. However, there are still plenty of questions around the extent to which the campaign rhetoric translates into policy reality. The lean will certainly be to more tax relief, although the positive growth impact will be countered somewhat by broad trade tariffs and uncertainty, accompanied by a firmer U.S. dollar and higher bond yields. The latter are driven by bigger budget deficits, modestly higher inflation ...

The race to control the House is undecided, though Republicans are already expressing early optimism about securing a governing trifecta with their new Senate majority and freshly minted President-elect Donald Trump. “As more results come in it is clear that, as we have predicted all along, Republicans are poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate and House,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said Wednesday in a statement. That early confidence comes as Republicans need to win 12 more seats to maintain their ...

Hundreds of millions of Americans head to the ballots today to vote for who they believe should be their next President: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Although more than 81 million ballots have been cast early this year, most of the electorate will do so today, ultimately determining who will reside in the White House and control the Senate. Later this evening, we will have the first results rolling in, although given the time differences across the 50 States and the District of Columbia, this will not be simultaneous. Knowing the ...

With just hours left until the close of polls (and today's cash market), we share some observations from DB looking at how markets have reacted to the six previous elections and what was going on at the time. As DB's Henry Allen notes, the reactions vary considerably: of the six elections since 2000, the S&P 500 was up in three cases by the end of November, and down in the other three. 10yr Treasury yields were down in four and up in two. It’s worth bearing in mind that markets already account for expectations. So in 2008, there was ...