IMF Meetings

The International Monetary Fund expects OPEC and its partners to start increasing oil output gradually from July, a transition that’s set to catapult Saudi Arabia back into the ranks of the world’s fastest-growing economies next year. “We are assuming the full reversal of cuts is happening at the beginning of 2025,” Amine Mati, the lender’s mission chief to the kingdom, said in an interview in Washington, where the IMF and the World Bank are holding their spring meetings. The view explains why the IMF is turning more upbeat on Saudi ...

The Middle East and North Africa and the Caucasus and Central Asia regions are positively impacted by the resilience of the global economy. Lower global commodity prices and vigilant policy responses have helped ease inflation in most countries. However, uncertainty and risks have risen amid ongoing conflicts, shipping disruptions, and reduced oil production. This is leading to an uneven recovery across the Middle East and Central Asia, with growth rates varying this year. Policymakers need to ensure economic stability and debt ...

Saudi Arabia will need a higher oil price than previously thought this year as the OPEC+ leader spearheads the group’s production cuts, according to the International Monetary Fund. Riyadh will require an average oil price of $96.20 a barrel to balance its budget, assuming it holds crude output steady near 9.3 million barrels a day this year, the Washington-based Fund said in its regional economic outlook on Thursday. That’s up 21% from a previous forecast in October, when the IMF predicted that the kingdom would pump 10 million ...

More upbeat than WSJ April survey mean: chart Figure 1: GDP (bold black), April WSJ survey (light blue), GDPNow (4/15) (red square), NY Fed (light green square), St. Louis Fed (blue inverted triangle), IMF April 2024 WEO (chartreuse triangles), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source BEA via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed via FRED, IMF, and author’s calculations. Below is the entire set of forecasts from the WEO, on a q4/q4 basis. Forecasts are based on the level of exchange rates prevailing in February 2024. ...

A sense of optimism has pervaded financial markets in recent months, amid investor confidence that the fight against inflation is entering its “last mile” and that central banks will ease monetary policy in the coming months. Stock markets around the world have risen substantially this year. Corporate and sovereign borrowing spreads have narrowed. And major emerging markets’ currencies and capital flows have remained resilient, while several frontier markets have regained access to international funding markets. And yet, there are ...