EZ EU Economic Forecasts

This Winter interim Forecast lowers the growth outlook for this year and sets inflation on a lower downward path than projected last autumn. Economic activity in 2023 is now estimated to have expanded by only 0.5% in both the EU and the euro area. The growth outlook for 2024 is revised down to 0.9% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area. In 2025, economic activity is still expected to expand by 1.7% in the EU and 1.5% in the euro area. EU HICP inflation is forecast to fall from 6.3% in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. In the euro ...

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The European Commission has today presented the Summer 2023 Economic Forecast. The EU economy continues to grow, albeit with reduced momentum. The forecast revises growth in the EU economy down to 0.8% in 2023, from 1% projected in the Spring Forecast, and 1.4% in 2024, from 1.7%. It also revises growth in the euro area down to 0.8% in 2023 (from 1.1%) and 1.3% in 2024 (from 1.6%). Inflation is expected to continue to decline over the forecast horizon. Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation is now projected to reach 6.5% in 2023 (compared to 6.7% in the spring) and 3.2% in 2024 (compared to 3.1%) in the EU. In the euro area, inflation is forecast to be 5.6% in 2023 (compared to 5.8%) and 2.9% in 2024 (compared to 2.8%). A reduced growth momentum Latest data confirm that economi post: EU Cuts 2023, 2024 Eurozone Growth Forecasts EU Sees Eurozone Growth at 0.8% in 2023, Down From 1.1% Previously Forecast EU Sees Eurozone Growth at 1.3% in 2024, Down From 1.6% Previously Forecast EU Sees Eurozone Inflation at 5.6% in 2023, Down From 5.8% Previously Forecast…

post at 4:03am: *EU RAISES EURO-AREA 2023 GROWTH FORECAST TO 0.9% VS 0.3% PRIOR - BBG *EU LOWERS EURO-AREA 2023 INFLATION FORECAST TO 5.6% VS 6.1%

post at 5:00am: EU COMMISSION FORECASTS EUROZONE QUARTERLY GDP TO CONTRACT IN Q4 2022 AND Q1 2023, RETURN TO GROWTH IN Q2 2023. post at 5:01am: EU COMMISSION FORECASTS EUROZONE AGGREGATED PUBLIC DEBT TO FALL TO 93.6% OF GDP IN 2022, 92.3% IN 2023 AND 91.4% IN 2024.Autumn 2022 Economic Forecast: The EU economy at a turning point As Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine enters its ninth month, there is no sign of a let-up in the fighting, let alone a peaceful resolution of the hostilities. The war continues to cause untold suffering and destruction in Ukraine, but also has economic reverberations that extend far beyond. The sharp rise in inflation under the pressure of energy, food and other commodity prices is hitting a global economy that is still struggling with the economic consequences of the pandemic crisis. The EU is among the most exposed economies, due to its geographical proximity to the war and heavy – albeit much diminishing – reliance on imports of fossil fuels. Although creeping inflation had already dented some of the post-pandemic euphoria ahead of the war, real GDP growth in the first half of the year beat expectations. With the easing of containment measures, consumers resumed international travel and flocked back to restaurants, hotels and other contact-intensive services, unleashing a strong spending spree. The expansion continued in the third quarter, though at a weaker pace. As the terms-of-trade shock makes its way through the economy, the sharp erosion of the purchasing power of households has shifted consumers’ sentiment dramatically. Confidence plunged also in the business sector, amid high production costs, remaining supply bottlenecks, tighter financing conditions and heightened uncertainty.

As the reality of a protracted Russian invasion of Ukraine sinks in, the assessment of its economic consequences for the global economy is turning grimmer. The shocks unleashed by the war are hitting the EU economy both directly and indirectly, setting it on a path of lower growth and higher inflation. The rapid increase in energy and food commodity prices is feeding global inflationary pressures, eroding the purchasing power of households and triggering a faster monetary policy response than previously assumed. Furthermore, the ...