US Presidential Election

Politics. What a mess of a topic. But thankfully, as a perfectly moderate pragmatic thinker who is invulnerable to biases (lol) I am here to perform the autopsy on this messy situation. 1) Why Did Trump Win? Trump’s win shocked the country. It didn’t shock me. Back in July I said that Kamala couldn’t win because I believe the rest of the country wants to avoid becoming San Francisco at all costs.1 So nominating a San Francisco Liberal was always going to be a huge uphill battle. But more importantly, it wasn’t so much that Trump was ...

Citi forecasted on Wednesday that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's second term could exert downward pressure on oil through 2025, with Brent crude forecasted to average at $60 per barrel, primarily due to potential trade tariffs and increased oil supply. The bank notes that Trump's influence on OPEC+, which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, might prompt the producer group to taper production cuts faster, while potentially reducing geopolitical tensions and releasing some ...

A Trump victory in the US election has significantly impacted the US dollar, driving it to a four-month high. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 105.00, reaching levels unseen since early July. This increase comes from expectations that Trump’s economic policies, including tax cuts, increased government spending, and potential tariffs, will lead to higher inflation. Consequently, these inflationary concerns may push the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary stance. Historically, the dollar has strengthened under ...

Donald Trump has been elected President again. TV networks called the race at around 5:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, and the AP called the race shortly after. A win in Wisconsin put him over the 270 electoral college vote threshold. The market is responding how we would have expected in the event of a Republican sweep—U.S. large-cap stocks, small-cap stock, and bond yields are all sharply higher. S&P 500 futures are up another +2.3% on top of yesterday’s +1.1% gain. Yesterday, all 11 sectors were higher, and breadth was the best ...

The U.S. election results will shift the economic landscape, particularly if the Republicans also manage to hold onto the House. However, there are still plenty of questions around the extent to which the campaign rhetoric translates into policy reality. The lean will certainly be to more tax relief, although the positive growth impact will be countered somewhat by broad trade tariffs and uncertainty, accompanied by a firmer U.S. dollar and higher bond yields. The latter are driven by bigger budget deficits, modestly higher inflation ...

With Trump’s win, U.S. Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year reaching 4.46% amid expectations of fiscal stimulus and deregulation. Equity markets have reacted positively, with S&P 500 futures up 2.3% and the Russell 2000 jumping 6%, as investors bet on a domestic-focused economic agenda. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar has pressured gold prices and weighed on international equities, especially in markets vulnerable to trade tensions and defense spending changes. Key Implications for Global Trade, USD, and Oil: • Trade Tensions: ...

Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept defeat four years ago, sparked a violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, was convicted of felony charges and survived two assassination attempts. With a win in Wisconsin, Trump cleared the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency. The victory validates his bare-knuckle approach to politics. He attacked his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, in deeply personal – often ...