The Big Picture

Signaling the Conflict: Mideast Outlook

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  • A key fear around the Gaza conflict was that widening regional tensions would draw Iran and Israel into direct conflict — and by extension possibly Iran and the US.
  • The first part of this scenario finally played out in Iran’s Apr. 13 drone and missile strikes targeting Israel, and Israel’s Apr. 19 retaliatory hit on an Iranian military facility — but so far without dragging the region or the US into a wider war.
  • While risks clearly remain, major and regional powers are working behind the scenes and in public to prevent an uncontrollable escalation, either restraining responses or signaling them in advance to limit the fallout.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spent much of his political career calling for military action against Iran, only to respond in a muted fashion when Israel was directly attacked by Tehran and the US signaled it wouldn’t join a counterstrike. The Israeli operation using a stand-off missile to target an air defense radar near the city of Isfahan appeared designed to send a message that Israel was capable of penetrating Iran’s air defenses at will. But it also provided an off-ramp to avoid the strong counter-response Iran had threatened. The strike was ultimately played down by all sides — with Iran’s foreign minister saying there was no proven connection between Israel and the “toys" used in the Apr. 19 incident — avoiding an immediate escalatory spiral.

Topics:
Security Risk , Military Conflict
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