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Oil and Natural Gas

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  • Post #2,541
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  • Nov 20, 2016 1:41am Nov 20, 2016 1:41am
  •  stylinex
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 4,072 Posts
For oil this year we had a low of under $26 and high of about $52 so I reckon that we hit $38 take or give before the end of this year. My $.02..
 
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  • Post #2,542
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  • Nov 20, 2016 1:45am Nov 20, 2016 1:45am
  •  arigoldman
  • | Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Member | 915 Posts
Expecting a consolidation.
 
 
  • Post #2,543
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  • Nov 21, 2016 9:52am Nov 21, 2016 9:52am
  •  medvic
  • | Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Member | 213 Posts
tempting to go short but... but... it's going higher. ...thinking to wait for announcement to have some clearness.
 
 
  • Post #2,544
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  • Nov 21, 2016 12:21pm Nov 21, 2016 12:21pm
  •  bladerogers
  • | Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 201 Posts
I expected a close of the gap before a move higher...looks like I was wrong.
 
 
  • Post #2,545
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  • Nov 21, 2016 10:45pm Nov 21, 2016 10:45pm
  •  user954
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: Member | 117 Posts
Quoting user954
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Two days after the Trump win, we have crude trading here in the low 40s. We see this as an excellent entry. We expect crude to be over $90 within a year from now.
Ignored
Though crude is up around 14% since our entry, it is still not too late to go long even for the short term. We see good odds for it to break $55 before the end of January. Though our primary play is to see it over $90 before the end of 2017
 
 
  • Post #2,546
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  • Nov 22, 2016 2:16am Nov 22, 2016 2:16am
  •  stylinex
  • Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Member | 4,072 Posts
Quoting user954
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{quote} Though crude is up around 14% since our entry, it is still not too late to go long even for the short term. We see good odds for it to break $55 before the end of January. Though our primary play is to see it over $90 before the end of 2017
Ignored
Who is our...???
 
 
  • Post #2,547
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  • Nov 22, 2016 8:04am Nov 22, 2016 8:04am
  •  medvic
  • | Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Member | 213 Posts
Quoting user954
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{quote} Though crude is up around 14% since our entry, it is still not too late to go long even for the short term. We see good odds for it to break $55 before the end of January. Though our primary play is to see it over $90 before the end of 2017
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so, not below 40 we are going to see? my thinking stocks move down would bring oil much below 40 till January..., ??
 
 
  • Post #2,548
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  • Nov 22, 2016 8:45am Nov 22, 2016 8:45am
  •  bladerogers
  • | Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Member | 201 Posts
personally medic, i am not heeding that rhetoric. I don't see crude hitting 90 again for a very long time. but nobody knows for sure.
 
 
  • Post #2,549
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  • Nov 22, 2016 9:13am Nov 22, 2016 9:13am
  •  medvic
  • | Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Member | 213 Posts
Quoting bladerogers
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personally medic, i am not heeding that rhetoric. I don't see crude hitting 90 again for a very long time. but nobody knows for sure.
Ignored
90 - ? it's depends on inflation and it's picking up, in other hand D Trump team yesterday confirm to remove a lot of restrictions set on energy, so, I expecting oil/gas production increase ..., will see..., for now I closed yesterday my oil shorts from 51 and going to wait till thing get more clear...
 
 
  • Post #2,550
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  • Nov 22, 2016 10:50pm Nov 22, 2016 10:50pm
  •  Jfrancis
  • Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Member | 299 Posts
update
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  • Post #2,551
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  • Nov 23, 2016 4:51pm Nov 23, 2016 4:51pm
  •  user954
  • Joined May 2015 | Status: Member | 117 Posts
Quoting medvic
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{quote} so, not below 40 we are going to see? my thinking stocks move down would bring oil much below 40 till January..., ??
Ignored

what we see is that the political forces that pushed down the price of oil and kept it down will ease considerably and that will be the biggest driver of oil to $90+ over the next 12 months

regarding stocks, certainly the path of least resistance is up and a parabolic move higher wouldn't surprise us. But we don't see one driving the other in the near future anyway apart from the correlation of crude prices to the energy sector stocks in the respective indices
 
 
  • Post #2,552
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  • Nov 30, 2016 10:09pm Nov 30, 2016 10:09pm
  •  Jfrancis
  • Joined Jun 2016 | Status: Member | 299 Posts
Oils correction

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  • Post #2,553
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  • Dec 1, 2016 1:45am Dec 1, 2016 1:45am
  •  ectoplasm
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 182 Posts
Quoting Jfrancis
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Oils correction {image}
Ignored
Hi Jfrancis,

Nice chart on oil above. I guess it is a bit debatable how far Crude Oil is likely to go on this pop. The 4 Hr chart below shows Gartley's 222 pattern, which seems to limit the upside somewhat....

On another matter, AUD/USD seems to be playing out as expected - nearly time to top up position/s IMO.
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  • Post #2,554
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  • Dec 1, 2016 1:37pm Dec 1, 2016 1:37pm
  •  diavolul
  • Joined May 2010 | Status: Full time trader | 748 Posts
Quoting ectoplasm
Disliked
{quote} Hi Jfrancis, Nice chart on oil above. I guess it is a bit debatable how far Crude Oil is likely to go on this pop. The 4 Hr chart below shows Gartley's 222 pattern, which seems to limit the upside somewhat.... On another matter, AUD/USD seems to be playing out as expected - nearly time to top up position/s IMO. {image}
Ignored
The price is dictating the pattern not otherwise!
 
 
  • Post #2,555
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  • Dec 1, 2016 5:30pm Dec 1, 2016 5:30pm
  •  thewriter30
  • | Joined May 2012 | Status: Worried | 458 Posts
So what is your take? All this is jawboning ? or actually oil is climbing no stop?
Mix of trades Return Today: na
 
 
  • Post #2,556
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  • Dec 2, 2016 4:50am Dec 2, 2016 4:50am
  •  ectoplasm
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 182 Posts
Maybe Crude oil price action is actually climbing non stop: looks a lot like consolidation before popping higher (bull flag) - however the Gartley 222 pattern suggests lower price action is just around the corner.

If that bull flag/pennant fails (say 50.50 is broken) then one could look for short short/s & see if oil is going your way

4 Hr chart:
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  • Post #2,557
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  • Dec 2, 2016 7:06am Dec 2, 2016 7:06am
  •  thewriter30
  • | Joined May 2012 | Status: Worried | 458 Posts
Quoting ectoplasm
Disliked
Maybe Crude oil price action is actually climbing non stop: looks a lot like consolidation before popping higher (bull flag) - however the Gartley 222 pattern suggests lower price action is just around the corner. If that bull flag/pennant fails (say 50.50 is broken) then one could look for short short/s & see if oil is going your way 4 Hr chart: {image}
Ignored
Hi there

From a FA point of view, what would take oil short ? The only thing I can think of is output cut promises not being enough
Mix of trades Return Today: na
 
 
  • Post #2,558
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  • Dec 4, 2016 5:55am Dec 4, 2016 5:55am
  •  ectoplasm
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 182 Posts
WTIC has had a nice bounce in price (up 12 %) on the reported deal, but it is close to a neck line (resistance). We could see short covering on a continued pop, but some indicators/ patterns still suggest lower prices soonish...

1 st chart is 4 Hr WTIC chart: Doji & divergence may well play out...



2nd chart is the Crude volatility index looks to be suggesting a reversal in price is around the corner:
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  • Post #2,559
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2016 10:30pm Dec 6, 2016 10:30pm
  •  Vantage FX
  • | Joined Sep 2011 | Status: Member | 1,029 Posts
Oil right on higher time frame triangle resistance.

Is that a head and shoulders forming on the intraday charts?
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  • Post #2,560
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2016 3:23am Dec 7, 2016 3:23am
  •  Exodus
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: Baaa-aa-aa | 8,453 Posts
Quoting Vantage FX
Disliked
Oil right on higher time frame triangle resistance. Is that a head and shoulders forming on the intraday charts? {image} {image}
Ignored
If you move the left shoulder slightly to the right, and raise the neckline, there is an HnS that has already broken.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life!
 
 
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