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Predict dollar movement using astrology 48 replies

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Attachments: Why it is possible to predict price movement?
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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

@rockit there is not much scope of these predictions being true. Forex market is dominated by uncertainty. A trader should constantly follow economic news and critically analyze and monitor the market.
The following are my 2 cents that belong to my personal experience; I do not pretend to have the truth in my pocket but since I can make profits I must think that I'm on the right way.
Everytime human intervention is involved, human behavior is the cause but what you can see on any chart always is the effect after the fact.
Time ago a researchers group made an interesting test: they filled a glass jar with marbles, thereafter they went out on the street and asked people choosed randomly to guess how many marbles were into the jar. The true number of marbles was 16.984 and no one between the hundred of people that have been asked did guess the exact number; not only, all of them gave results very far from it.
This was not a surprise, but making the average of the given answers has been a real surprise: indeed they found that the sum average of the results was the almost exact true number of the marbles with a tollerance about 0,... percent. The further surprise was that without people beeing aware they grouped 50% in the overextimation range and the other 50% in the underextimation range. They repeated the test many times and results have always been the same.
So, what does this mean? That individual behavior always is unpredictable meanwhile you can quite easy predict which a human group behavior will be in a given environment and with a known input of information.
Price behaves the same way, and this is the reason why sometimes is predictable and sometimes it is not.
Said that most of the common known tools about price, S/R, supply and demand, fundamentals and order flow, are affected by the same cause, therefore you cannot rely on them or you have to learn to assess the conditions in which they do work and the conditions in which they do not.
In other words there is no a set and forget tool or system and there is no way to be consistent with predicting future price action: the best you can do is anticipating price in the situations in which is predictable and in anycase it can only be reliable in a short term. The rest is done with risk management and this is the only thing you will hear about very rarely; you will be told about money management but not about risk management because it is really counter-intuitive and before you can understand it you need a hard mind training.
The lows have been taken... Captain jack was right all along.
I think the price is predictable because interaction between supply and demand. and price movement toward side more supply or demand that you can see it in market profile in chart.
If most people struggle to be profitable, the market cannot be said to be predictable. Instead, it's largely random, with supply & demand intervening when we least expect them to. Humans don't have the foresight to predict those changes to capitalize on them. We're horrible, irrational thinkers.
Quoting strongtrader
Price behaves the same way, and this is the reason why sometimes is predictable and sometimes it is not. Said that most of the common known tools about price, S/R, supply and demand, fundamentals and order flow, are affected by the same cause, therefore you cannot rely on them or you have to learn to assess the conditions in which they do work and the conditions in which they do not. In other words there is no a set and forget tool or system and there is no way to be consistent with predicting future price action: the best you can do is anticipating...
The market is a probability distribution curve with respect to achieving a certain amount of return with a given level of risk. Over a long enough time horizon, any profits we make is met with equal amount of losses (plus trading commissions/fees).

So, those who became and stayed wealthy in investing/trading just happened to switch gears before the market is able to revert back to the probability mean. Only a very few was able to do that. It was more of a case of participating in the market with a certain strategy when, during that small window, it was skewed to give them a temporary probability advantage. In other words, luck was on their side for a time.
Based on the current tools and computing power, I believe it is possible to predict price movement but only with a certain percentage of probability.
If you're not architecting, you're building someone else's plan.
Not experienced or profitable but here goes my two cents on the topic. Key thing for me is that people like me have zero influence over price action. Market movers such as big banks and hedge funds make the price move and they are not your typical irrational retail trader. Their trades are influenced by multiple factors, but mostly the flow of money. The FED pumps up the market with cheap money, SPX and DOW go up and the dollar goes down. Lately they have been doing the opposite and big surprise the dollar is shooting for the moon. Anyone with the patience to follow this over the past weeks and months has made money. Sadly I am looking to trade intraday and don't have the nerves to hold on to a trade for more than an hour.

If I am to trade the dollar I can assume it is in strong trend and any signal to buy with the trend would have a far greater chance of success than anything else. The bigger money moves the big money. Me? I'm just e flea clinging on to the trend. Not predicting anything, just going with the flow.
Quoting Svetul4o
Not experienced or profitable but here goes my two cents on the topic. Key thing for me is that people like me have zero influence over price action. Market movers such as big banks and hedge funds make the price move and they are not your typical irrational retail trader. Their trades are influenced by multiple factors, but mostly the flow of money. The FED pumps up the market with cheap money, SPX and DOW go up and the dollar goes down. Lately they have been doing the opposite and big surprise the dollar is shooting for the moon. Anyone with the...
Those are very wise words, you may not be experienced but you're seeing the market in the correct way. It is moved (manipulated) by institutional players and following their manipulations is the only way to be profitable at the retail level. I would also suggest an automated trading system which would eliminate nerves.
Quoting Svetul4o
If I am to trade the dollar I can assume it is in strong trend and any signal to buy with the trend would have a far greater chance of success than anything else. The bigger money moves the big money. Me? I'm just e flea clinging on to the trend. Not predicting anything, just going with the flow.
No, that strategy won't make you profitable in the long run. From your perspective, there are trends and there are periods of ranging/consolidations, but you have no way of predicting when they begin and end. You may make money following major trends, you lose all of those gains when the market is whipsawing on you. It all evens out after a while, minus commissions and fees, so a net loss. It's due to the inherently probabilistic nature of the market with respect to the return/risk profile of the trades you take. Find a way around this, which only the truly consistently profitable traders managed to pull off, you'll succeed but this strategy you're laying out won't help you get there.
You are either consistently better at predicting future than collective opinion (expressed in market price) which is unlikely for liquid markets with professional participants or your system is based on exploiting irrationality of others (like technical analysis traders) but you have to have find appropriate market for that or your bread is disadvantaged traders (for example which are slower).
Quoting raklian
{quote} No, that strategy won't make you profitable in the long run. From your perspective, there are trends and there are periods of ranging/consolidations, but you have no way of predicting when they begin and end. You may make money following major trends, you lose all of those gains when the market is whipsawing on you. It all evens out after a while, minus commissions and fees, so a net loss. It's due to the inherently probabilistic nature of the market with respect to the return/risk profile of the trades you take. Find a way around this,...
Why do I need to predict when a trend will begin and why do I need to know when it ends? Why not just wait for it to begin? There are always pullbacks AKA buy the dip. If there are 4 pullbacks that give me 2 times risk and I get stopped out on the 5th because the trend has shifted then I am still at a net gain. And I can take the opposite side after the shift. Why do I need to predict any of this? No commission or fees, just the spread. Say I'm trading the SPX500. The spread is 0.3 and I am looking for a risk to reward ratio of 1 to 2 or 10 to 20 pips. The spread is no issue.

Further more, if the market is forward looking and pricing in future events such as rate hikes and so on, you would have to do the same thing big banks are doing. Are you? Can you? How many of the so called systems posted on this site do this? From what I can tell most are just looking at past price action.
Quoting raklian
{quote} The market is a probability distribution curve with respect to achieving a certain amount of return with a given level of risk. Over a long enough time horizon, any profits we make is met with equal amount of losses (plus trading commissions/fees). So, those who became and stayed wealthy in investing/trading just happened to switch gears before the market is able to revert back to the probability mean. Only a very few was able to do that. It was more of a case of participating in the market with a certain strategy when, during that small...
It's not a matter of good luck or bad luck, nor a random event. Those are just ego's justifications.
The reason why only a few can be consistent is that only a few have the knowledge to master the trading field. And the reason why only a few have that knowledge is not because they are somehow elected people but because they understood what kind of knowledge was needed to succeed.
The first step, whici is mandatory, is to learn to think out of the box, instead most of the people are stucked with their beliefs and end up always repeating the same things in different ways hoping in vain to obtain different results.
You are right about the probability distribution curve, it is like a rubber band, but it is possible to see with a little advance when is time to change gears and direction: it is a matter of how you think because you can see only what you can think.
How many times you came back to your chart seeing something that you weren't able to see just a few minutes before, wondering how it was possible that you didn't see it? To me happened thousands of times, and the solution is not in "time series data".



and you asked yourself how
I enjoy watching the titans talk in code.

It surely is an art form to say something without saying too much. I bet the backspace button gets a workout!
Why is a Raven like a Writing Desk?
Quoting Rastus81
I enjoy watching the titans talk in code. It surely is an art form to say something without saying too much. I bet the backspace button gets a workout!
More like saying nothing at all. Hundreds of pages filled with hot air and worn out keyboards. Don't spill the beans on your special sauce, but do pretend to know everything to make the noobs feel depressed and insignificant.
To become a profitable trader years of study, work and efforts are needed. The main question is: for what a strange kind of reason one who has made it should share the fruit of his hard work with the first comer? Pretenders looking for spoon feeding are nowhere men.
For instance, I met a lot of whiny people when I was attending to CP's thread, because they weren't able to understand what she was saying, and me too was not able to understand. But while they were complaining, judging and criticising, I've been spending my time trying to decifer the enormous amount of clues CP was sharing, and that thread has been the milestone of my evolution as a trader. From then on I began to see and I' ve been allowed to enter a world that to me has been unknown till then. And the same happened to those who have been humble enough to appreciate those clues and to make their own work to extrapolate new informations for their improvement. They were very few I have to say, pitty.
This is the nature of things, someone laughs or complains and someothers make their own success.
Quoting strongtrader
To become a profitable trader years of study, work and efforts are needed. The main question is: for what a strange kind of reason one who has made it should share the fruit of his hard work with the first comer? Pretenders looking for spoon feeding are nowhere men. For instance, I met a lot of whiny people when I was attending to CP's thread, because they weren't able to understand what she was saying, and me too was not able to understand. But while they were complaining, judging and criticising, I've been spending my time trying to decifer the...
It's called a profession and most of those need years of learning and practice to master. Thing is that for other professions there is giant pool of reliable and accessible information. For trading you have a handful of decent research papers and books. The rest is a giant pool of grifters and ego pumpers regurgitating publicly available information and smart sounding slogans. As a result for a simple question you get a 100 pages of mostly nonsense with no backing or explanation. How is a beginner trader to make the distinction between your valuable clues and all the other nonsense? Personally I give up on a topic after a 3 - 4 pages.
Quoting Svetul4o
{quote} It's called a profession and most of those need years of learning and practice to master. Thing is that for other professions there is giant pool of reliable and accessible information. For trading you have a handful of decent research papers and books. The rest is a giant pool of grifters and ego pumpers regurgitating publicly available information and smart sounding slogans. As a result for a simple question you get a 100 pages of mostly nonsense with no backing or explanation. How is a beginner trader to make the distinction between your...
I think you just answered your own question.
Why is a Raven like a Writing Desk?
Quoting Svetul4o
{quote} Personally I give up on a topic after a 3 - 4 pages.
Maybe that's the reason you struggle so much... It's called a profession and as many other high-rewarding profession it does need sacrifices and a genuine obsession to keep up even when everything tells you to quit, that's why 95% of traders fail, only 5% of people (on every endeavor) are willing to do such sacrifices.

I agree that informations are poor, there isn't a straight up guide on how to acquire all the knowledge needed to become a professional and most of the people are just trying to sell you crap... But isn't it the same with every endeavor in life? I would bet that if I start pursuing a career on acting I'll find a lot of crap teachers trying to sell me their poor courses, same with photography or every profession where the payout for those who make it is high... It's just nature, it works like this everywhere... you want high reward? Well... you'll need to give something for it.

Personally, if I was to start over I would go like this:

  1. Listen to every little question that arise. I remember asking "why charts look like that"? "Why they invented candlesticks"?

  1. Most beginners just ignore those questions because finding an answer to them have not some "money making premise", so they ignore them and run for some shiny trading system... I say to you, find answers to those questions, soon or later you'll need those answers. Here on FF there are answers, heck there's even a thread titled "Why they invented candlesticks?"... But I bet you already read it...

  1. Find a mentor, DO NOT PAY, in fact you don't even need to ever talk to your mentor. As another member suggested, you could start with CP... He have ~800 posts and he always said "read my posts 100x and then you'll start to understand".. That would be reading 80k posts, are you willing to do that?
    Repetition is key, you'll not understand anything the first time you go trough this 800 posts, but you'll come up with questions, along side acquire some on-field experience, then go back and read all his posts again... You'll always come up with more questions and the more you read his posts the more you'll start to think like a profitable trader.

    Why I highlighted to word think? Read some quotes by Sun Tzu and you'll find the answer.

  1. Alongside your readings and studies follow a system, take some trades... I suggest you to start with TooSlow system "trading is simple as 1-2-3". For every trade take a screen shot on the open and on the close, at the end of every day and week revise your errors.

  1. Find common points between what you mentor say and how the system you choose work. I suggested you CP & TooSlow because actually TooSlow system is based on CP teachings.


Now, as you requested you've been spoon-feeded, something changed? There's still a mountain of work you need to do, just start doing it so the time I spent writing this will have a meaning.

Good luck.

There is a logical thread that connects everything but many people do not see it and stumble upon it.
The reason is that the common way of thinking is linear meanwhile you are facing with a no linear field. Change your way of thinking and you will start to see the thread.
This is the most difficult challenge you have to overcome because you have to re-educate your mind with the same mind that has to be re-educated, and this process starts out of the trading field. In the far past someone told me to look for something that lies behind charts, he didn't tell me what to look for and subsequently I understood why: if he had I would never have taken him seriously.
When I finally got it, then he told me to look at charts because I would have been able to see the footprint left on them by what was liyng behind. Well, that was the logical thread I couldn't see, and I've been surprised to see that it was so simple and effective. But the biggest surprise occured when I became aware that I've seen it many times without knowing what was it; in other words I was looking without seeing.
It took me years of research and study to discover this stuff, and one thing I've learnt during this process is that:
- informations come to you when you are ready to receive them, not earlier nor later than that;
- to get ready to find informations you need to be open minded, once you see that what you are doing doesn't work do something different, get out of your usual environment, explore new fields, try to go where no one has ever been, do the opposite of what your rational mind suggests you.
Now, but this time only, I'm going to give a very important information that will hurt most of you: someone will laugh loud, someone will feel like I'm kidding you, but someone will begin to do his own work, maybe...
So, the information is the following:
if you want to understand trading don't look at trading, look at nature. If you understand how nature works then you will know how trading works.
Good luck to everyone.
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